BitMEX Alpha: Bitcoin Bottom and Q1 2026 Outlook

Reasons for being optimistic

● The divergence is widening: The trading logic of "money printing/geopolitical risk" in 2025 has been fully demonstrated in gold (up 70% year-to-date) and silver (up 140-150% year-to-date). But Bitcoin has not. BTC is currently priced at around $87,000, and has even fallen by 8% year-to-date. This has created a huge relative value misalignment.

● Liquidity Trap: Markets are pessimistic about the Federal Reserve's new $40 billion monthly Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) tool, arguing that the current "credit impulse" is diluted compared to the size in 2009. Arthur Hayes believes this is purely a mathematical misjudgment.

● Catalyst: Once the market realizes that RMP is essentially QE (quantitative easing), we expect Bitcoin to fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 by the end of the year, then recover to $124,000 in Q1 2026, and then surge toward $200,000 .

● Bottom-fishing logic: Although the "sell the news" rally of Trump's first year in office has ended, he still has three years left in his term. The Trump family and their business partners have deeply penetrated the crypto space, which means that favorable policies will follow one after another in the next three years.

Relative Valuation: The Divergence Between Gold and Bitcoin

If you stick to the "hard currency" view in 2025, you're right about the macro direction, but you've chosen the wrong vehicle —unless you're buying gold.

Gold and silver have already fully priced in the "money printing/geopolitical risks/interest rate cuts" expected in 2025. Gold prices have surged by more than 70% this year, while silver has skyrocketed by 140-150%, approaching its historical high of $70 per ounce.

Bitcoin, however, remained unchanged.

● BTC 2025 opening price: ~$94,419

● BTC Current Price: ~$87,084 (down approximately 8%)

This creates an excellent relative value trading opportunity: if you believe that BTC and gold belong to the "hard asset" category, then selling BTC at $87,000 is equivalent to cutting your losses at the bottom after it has underperformed for a whole year for various reasons.

The current valuation gap is ridiculously large. Gold's market capitalization has ballooned to $31.5 trillion , while Bitcoin remains at $1.7 trillion . The market capitalization ratio has increased from 9 times a year ago to 18 times now. Unless the logic behind Bitcoin as a store of value completely collapses, this gap must be closed.

Policy fundamentals: The best is yet to come.

Although the market viewed Trump's inauguration as a "profit-taking" moment for Bitcoin, political reality tells us that the real game-changer is yet to come.

Trump has only been in office for a year. Historically, the first year is usually a period of market digestion, but the policy channels are just beginning to open. The Strategic Reserve on Bitcoin (SBR) framework proposed by the White House in March is just an appetizer. In the coming months, we can expect to see more concrete evidence on how this reserve will be implemented and scaled up.

Let's not forget that the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrency goes beyond just writing documents. Trump's inner circle, family, and business partners have demonstrated a deep "cohesion of interests." For example, the Trump Media Group (DJT) has explicitly implemented a Bitcoin treasury strategy, undertaking a multi-billion dollar fundraising plan. Recent data shows they already hold approximately 11,542 BTC .

FUD Assessment: Forced Selling of $MSTR is Not a Recent Concern

The recent weakening of Bitcoin prices is largely due to unfounded market panic surrounding Bitcoin treasury companies, particularly the forced sell-off by strategists: fears that MSCI will remove "digital asset treasury" companies from its major indices in early 2026. Our analysis concludes that this concern is completely misplaced.

The index exclusion mechanism affects the cash flow of companies like MicroStrategy, and has absolutely nothing to do with the spot price of Bitcoin. Moreover, these whales have already strengthened their balance sheets; for example, MicroStrategy has stockpiled $1.44 billion in cash reserves to cope with its debt. This buffer is thick enough that there is no need for them to be forced to sell Bitcoin.

Liquidity Mechanisms: RMP and the Road to $200,000

Another missing element in the Bitcoin bullish argument is the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed has already launched Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) —purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills per month.

$40 billion per month sounds impressive, but as a percentage of the total circulating dollars, that figure in 2025 is far lower than in 2009. Therefore, based on current financial asset prices, we cannot expect its credit pulse to have the same immediate and significant impact.

This is why there is a common misconception in the market that RMP is inferior to QE (in terms of credit creation). Coupled with the uncertainty about whether RMP will exist after April 2026, this will cause Bitcoin to fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 before the start of the new year.

The turning point in the first quarter of 2026: When the market begins to equate RMP with QE (because it is essentially printing money to buy bonds), the price revaluation will be very dramatic.

1. Bitcoin will quickly recover to $124,000 .
2. Prices are poised to surge toward $200,000 .
3. March 2026 will be the peak of market expectations regarding RMP's ability to boost asset prices.
4. After reaching this peak, with New York Fed President John Williams firmly pressing the "Brrrr" button on the printing press (continuous monetary easing), we expect Bitcoin to pull back and form a local bottom well above $124,000 .

Conclusion: Trading Strategy

We believe the $87,000 area represents a solid bottom, characterized by a shift in holdings from impatient capital to strategic long-term holders. The current risk-reward ratio is extremely favorable for funds to rotate back into digital assets, and the market will reprice Bitcoin to reflect the liquidity and inflation realities already established in the precious metals market.