Pantera Capital: 12 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

Original author: Jay Yu

Compiled and edited by: BitpushNews

Merry holidays and a peaceful Christmas Eve! It's that time of year again for predictions. Here are my 12 predictions for the crypto market in 2026.

1 – Capital-efficient consumer credit

Capital-efficient consumer credit will be the next frontier in crypto lending. It combines complex on-chain and off-chain credit models, modular design and collateral management, and AI learning of user behavior, all encapsulated in an easily accessible application.

2 – Market Divergence

Prediction markets will evolve in two distinct directions—a "financial" direction and a "cultural" direction. In the financial direction, prediction markets will become more composable with DeFi, offering easier access to leverage, implementing liquidity staking, and creating instruments that are almost like sophisticated "options." The cultural market will be more inclined to capture the imagination of the masses, exhibiting greater regional diversity and serving a long tail of enthusiasts.

3 – The Rise of Commercial Intelligent Agents Based on x402

Agent commerce using endpoints like x402 will expand into more service areas. While the core appeal of agent commerce will remain micropayments, x402 will also be increasingly used as a framework for regular payments—mechanically almost identical to Apple Pay. Some websites may see over 50% of their transaction volume and revenue come from x402 payments. In x402 transaction volume at the cent level, Solana will surpass Base.

4 – AI as the Interface Layer for Encrypted Interactions

AI-mediated trading cycles will become mainstream. While fully autonomous trading AI based on large language models is still in the experimental stage, AI assistance (analyzing crypto trends, specific projects, wallet tracking) will gradually permeate the user workflows of most consumer-facing crypto applications.

5 – The Rise of Tokenized Gold

Trading volume in tokenized gold is poised to grow, making it a leading asset in the real-world asset (RWA) wave. Tokenized gold can circumvent restrictions imposed on physical gold in various jurisdictions and will become an increasingly attractive store of value against the backdrop of structural problems facing the US dollar.

6 – The “Quantum Panic” of BTC

A "quantum panic" is likely to occur (possibly stemming from a technological breakthrough), prompting institutions holding large amounts of BTC to begin discussing contingency plans for quantum computing. The resilience of BTC and early coins from the Satoshi era will be closely watched. Fortunately, the technology is not yet sufficient to pose a real threat to any value.

7 – Unified Privacy Development Experience

With the continued development of frameworks like Ethereum's Kohaku, privacy will gain a unified and user-friendly developer interface. Its development path will be similar to the "wallet-as-a-service" platforms of the previous cycle—providing an application-level product that abstracts various technology connectors. We may see companies offering "privacy-as-a-service" bundles (perhaps including wallets), primarily targeting enterprise workflows.

8 – Integration of DAT (Digital Asset Treasury)

Each major category will only consolidate into 2-3 DATs. This may be achieved through unwinding/releasing liquidity, converting to ETF-style products, or through mergers and acquisitions among DATs.

9 – The blurring of the lines between tokens and equity

"Governance" crypto tokens, where companies lack legal control over their operations, will face an existential crisis. We will see more high-quality companies choosing to remain "private" for longer periods. Perhaps we will see tokens convertible to equity, and the regulatory framework surrounding the legal ownership of tokens will be strengthened.

10 – Hyperliquid maintains its dominance in perpetual contract DEXs

Perpetual contract DEXs will be consolidated, with Hyperliquid maintaining its market dominance. The HIP3 market will become the primary driver of trading volume, and interest-bearing stablecoins will become first-class citizens on HYPE (the Hyperliquid ecosystem) (e.g., through HyENA). USDC's dominance on HYPE will be replaced by USDe and USDH.

11 – Prop AMM (Oracle-Driven AMM) Enables Multichaining

Prop AMMs will enable multi-chain deployments and account for more than half of the trading volume on Solana. They will also be used to price more assets, such as RWA.

12 – Stablecoins become part of international payment flows

A growing number of existing fintech companies (such as Stripe, Ramp, Brex, and Klarna) will use stablecoins to process their international payment flows. Stablecoin chains like Tempo will become major gateways for fiat currency into cryptocurrencies, accepting fiat payments first and then converting them into stablecoins for settlement.

As always, this content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please dyor!