Twenty One plunges nearly 20% on its first day of trading; the valuation mystery of the third-largest Bitcoin DAT.

Original article | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP )

Twenty One Capital (NYSE: XXI), a Bitcoin asset reserve company jointly backed by stablecoin giant Tether and Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange on December 9. However, in stark contrast to its "asset-heavy" and "strong backing" advantages, its stock price plummeted immediately after opening on its first day of trading, falling nearly 20% intraday. The capital market's first response was not favorable.

Founded in early 2025 and led by Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers, Twenty One positions itself as a company with Bitcoin as its core asset allocation. It is backed by stablecoin issuer Tether, Japan's SoftBank Group, and Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald.

It's important to note that Twenty One did not opt for a traditional IPO. Instead, it completed a backdoor listing through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners (SPAC), officially listing on the NYSE on December 9th. Cantor Equity Partners is a key platform under Cantor Fitzgerald, headed by Brandon Lutnick, son of the US Secretary of Commerce, who also personally led the merger. In his announcement, he emphasized that the Cantor partnership was crucial in bringing together innovative players like Tether and SoftBank. This relationship adds "institutional prestige" to Twenty One Capital, especially within the context of the Trump administration's promised crypto-friendly policies.

However, the sentiment in the capital markets was clearly more complex. Initially, the company traded under the CEP code. After the announcement, the stock price surged from $10.20 to a high of $59.60, a nearly six-fold increase. The market's initial enthusiasm for the "Bitcoin Reserve Company" narrative was almost palpable on the stock chart. But as speculative sentiment subsided, the stock price quickly fell back and is currently hovering around $11.40, almost erasing most of the premium.

This stands in stark contrast to its massive Bitcoin holdings. At the time of its IPO, Twenty One held 43,514 BTC, with a market value of approximately $4.03 billion, ranking third globally among corporate cryptocurrency holders , behind only Strategy and MARA Holdings.

Valuation Puzzle: The Causes Behind Extreme Discounts

What truly perplexes the market is its valuation structure. At its current share price, Twenty One's total market capitalization is only about $186 million, with a market multiple (mNAV) as low as 0.046. This means the capital market is only willing to price it at about 4.6% of its Bitcoin asset's book value. Why such an extreme discount?

A deeper analysis of its asset acquisition methods reveals that Twenty One's Bitcoin reserves are not primarily formed through long-term purchases on the open market, but rather heavily rely on a "shareholder injection" model: its initial reserves of approximately 42,000 BTC came from direct investment from Tether. Subsequently, on May 14, 2025, the company added another 4,812 BTC through Tether, at a cost of approximately $458.7 million, corresponding to a cost of approximately $95,300 per BTC; and prior to its IPO, it completed an additional acquisition plan of approximately 5,800 BTC through PIPE financing and convertible bond mechanisms.

The advantage of this model lies in its extremely high efficiency, as it eliminates the need for a lengthy secondary market accumulation process and allows for the rapid completion of large-scale reserves. However, the cost is equally significant: the assets are highly concentrated in a few related parties, making it difficult for investors to fully understand the internal transaction structure, custody arrangements, and potential contractual constraints. Transparency and sustainability naturally become important discount factors in market pricing.

The Collective Dilemma of the "Digital Asset Reserve Company" Model

From an industry perspective, Twenty One's problems are not an isolated case. According to data from defillama.com , there are currently over 70 "crypto-equity companies" (i.e., publicly listed companies holding crypto assets) globally. Among the top 20 holders, most companies' mNAV has fallen below 1, including Strategy, which pioneered this model.

With the current overall pullback in the crypto market, these "crypto-stock companies" have gradually retreated from the core of the narrative to the periphery of risk control models, and the market's valuation of these crypto asset reserve companies has generally turned cautious.

However, Strategy differs significantly in scale from Twenty One. Strategy currently holds approximately 660,600 Bitcoins, representing about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply—more than 15 times the size of Twenty One. This scale not only grants it greater market influence but also symbolizes a kind of "systemic anchoring." When Strategy's mNAV falls below 1, deeper questions naturally arise: Will it be forced to sell off its holdings? Will its debt structure lead to a stampede? Has the DAT model lost its logical foundation in the face of macroeconomic cycles?

In fact, with the significant pullback in the crypto market in 2025, the DAT (Debt-to-Asset) model faced severe challenges. The core of this model is accumulating Bitcoin through debt and equity financing, viewing it as the "ultimate asset" to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. However, when Bitcoin's price volatility amplifies significantly, the stability of this model begins to falter. Some companies, despite holding substantial amounts of BTC, faced valuation pressure due to operating costs and market sentiment. While Twenty One's extreme discount is related to its asset acquisition method, it also represents a concentrated reflection of the market's pricing of risk for the entire DAT model.

Conclusion: The narrative remains, but the market needs time.

At Binance Blockchain Week on December 4th, Michael Saylor offered a broader perspective. In his presentation, " Why Bitcoin Remains the Ultimate Asset: The Next Chapter for Bitcoin," he reiterated his core predictions for Bitcoin's future over the next decade: Bitcoin is transitioning from an investment product to the "foundational capital" of the global digital economy, and the rise of the digital credit system will reshape the traditional $300 trillion credit market. From policy shifts and changing bank attitudes to the institutionalization of ETFs and the explosive growth of digital credit instruments, Saylor depicts a new financial order that is rapidly approaching: digital capital provides the energy, digital credit provides the structure, and Bitcoin will become the underlying asset supporting all of this.

From this perspective, companies like Twenty One do indeed possess the potential to be " correct in the long run "—if Bitcoin eventually completes its migration from a high-risk asset to "digital gold," then these companies may become the core vehicles in this migration process.

The problem is that "being correct in the long term" does not automatically equate to "being reasonably priced in the present." The market still needs time to verify Bitcoin's true role in the macro system, and it also needs time to reassess the resilience of the DAT model under different cyclical environments.

Related Reading: "Full Text of Saylor's Dubai Speech: Why Bitcoin Will Become the Underlying Asset of Global Digital Capital"