Matrixport Market Watch: Rebound Correction or Trend Reversal?

On the macro level, expectations for Federal Reserve policy have clearly turned dovish, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from about 30% at the beginning of the month to nearly 90%, providing key support for the rebound in risk assets. Geopolitical risks have not escalated further, and the "fear and greed index" has rebounded from the extreme fear zone, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment. Meanwhile, after several weeks of net outflows, crypto investment products have begun to show signs of a slight return of funds.

BTC and ETH stabilized and rebounded, with on-chain and derivatives recovering simultaneously.

As of December 1st, Bitcoin is currently trading around $91,500, a rebound of approximately 15% from last week's low of $80,000. The $80,000 level has initially formed temporary support, but the $98,000-$100,000 range remains a key resistance zone. If this level cannot be effectively broken, this rally may still be considered a technical pullback. Ethereum is currently around $3,025. Returning above $3,000 has eased market tensions, and a sustained move above $3,200 would further confirm a trend reversal.

On-chain data is releasing positive signals. The supply of stablecoins such as USDT increased by approximately $1.3 billion in November, reflecting funds seeking safe havens. Recently, some stablecoins have flowed back into exchanges, indicating a rebound in allocation intentions. Ethereum's staking ratio is approaching 30% of its total supply, active BTC and ETH addresses have stabilized and rebounded, and whale addresses have continued to increase their holdings at low levels, indicating that long-term capital positioning remains unchanged. In derivatives, implied volatility has declined, the put/call ratio has returned to equilibrium, and perpetual contract funding rates have turned positive, indicating a gradual recovery in bullish momentum.

Structural Opportunities and Allocation Strategies

At the sector level, the Layer 2, RWA, and Solana ecosystems have demonstrated resilience. Ethereum Layer 2 network user activity remains stable, and the scale of on-chain government bonds and real-world asset tokenization in the RWA sector continues to expand, providing a stable yield anchor. Solana has rebounded sharply from its November lows, coupled with positive expectations such as spot ETFs, leading to a continued recovery in ecosystem confidence.

Strategically, if the current situation is judged to be a technical rebound phase, it is recommended to focus on stable-return structured tools to obtain range-bound returns during fluctuations; if it is believed that the market has entered the early stage of a reversal, long positions can be established through tools such as Accumulator and positive FCN to enhance return elasticity while controlling risks.

Overall, multiple indicators suggest the market is moving from a panic phase into a recovery phase, but key resistance levels have not yet been broken and macroeconomic policies are still pending implementation. Until the trend becomes truly clear, flexible asset allocation and a steady, progressive approach remain the best strategies for the current stage.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents only the author's personal views.

Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your individual circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.