As of November 2025, while inflation is gradually slowing, the pace remains sluggish, and a smooth market recovery remains highly uncertain. Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown is adding further pressure to the already fragile economic recovery.

For traditional financial markets, November presents a real test. Central banks are testing the limits of their easing policies, seeing if they can continue cutting interest rates without reigniting inflation. Energy prices are stabilizing after sharp fluctuations, while upcoming fiscal plans from major economies like the UK will reveal how countries are finding a balance between economic growth and fiscal discipline on their way to 2026.

The pace is equally fast for the crypto market. Institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs, token unlocking is testing the market's capacity, and new projects are reigniting interest in the DeFi and AI-related ecosystems.

It can be said that the market atmosphere in November will set the tone for the global market in 2026.

Quick Summary

• The crypto market remains active, with highlights including token unlocks (SUI, HYPE), Infinex's pre-sale at the end of November, and the continued rise in popularity of the x402 protocol.
• The US government shutdown continues to affect the release of official data, leaving traders reliant on estimates from private institutions until a new agreement is reached.
• Inflation and employment data will be the core focus, with CPI and PPI (November 13-14) and the non-farm payroll report (November 7) determining whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December.
• China and Europe will also release key signals, including the Loan Prime Rate (LPR, November 20), the Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (November 21), and the UK Autumn Budget (November 26).
• The key to the energy market lies at the OPEC+ meeting (November 30), whose production decisions could influence inflation trends and market risk sentiment, extending into 2026.

November's Key Calendar Highlights

Macro Focus

Crypto Market Focus

On November 1st, approximately 44 million Sui tokens were unlocked and put into circulation to test the market's capacity to absorb the new Layer-1 supply. On November 3rd, Aster DEX launched a stricter VIP reward system to encourage long-term holding and active trading. Later this month, Hyperliquid will begin monthly token unlocks, coupled with a buyback program, to balance market supply and demand; while Infinex, the DeFi platform founded by Synthetix's founder, will launch a pre-sale, aiming to make on-chain trading more accessible to ordinary users. Meanwhile, the x402 protocol is continuously expanding its "HTTP-native" payment network, enabling on-chain machine payments between APIs and AI agents, laying the foundation for future decentralized machine trading.

Global Macro Focus

November is a busy and crucial month for markets, with important economic data and policy decisions coming from the US, Europe, and Asia. For traders, these figures will determine whether risk assets can continue to rise or whether market sentiment will turn cautious again.

Why it matters: These data will collectively influence global bond yields, currency flows, and risk appetite. If inflation remains stable and policies gradually ease, risk assets may continue to rise; however, if unexpected events occur, the market is likely to enter a profit-taking phase.

A. United States

1. Inflation data (CPI and PPI – November 13–14)

Inflation remains the most closely watched indicator by the Federal Reserve and global traders. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will reveal how quickly prices have cooled after a year of consecutive interest rate cuts.

• If the CPI is below 3%, it will support the Federal Reserve to continue easing policy in December.
• If inflation rises unexpectedly, the market may lower its expectations for further interest rate cuts, pushing yields and the dollar higher.

Image source: US core inflation rate (Trading Economics)

Image source: US Producer Price Index (month-on-month change) (Trading Economics)

2. Employment Report (November 7)

The October jobs report will be the first uninterrupted data release since the government shutdown. Economists generally expect hiring to proceed at a moderate pace, with the unemployment rate remaining at around 4.3%.

• If the data is weak, it will support the view that interest rates will continue to be cut.
• If job creation is strong, the US dollar may strengthen, while stocks and crypto assets may experience a short-term pullback.

Image source: US Unemployment Rate (Trading Economics)

Image source: US non-farm payrolls (Trading Economics)

3. FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 19)

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its October 28-29 meeting on November 19. The minutes will reveal how officials discussed the latest interest rate cut and the direction of future policy. Traders will focus on hints regarding balance sheet policy or further easing in the future.

Image source: U.S. Federal Funds Rate (Trading Economics)

4. Core PCE Price Index (November 26)

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index is known as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. It excludes volatile food and energy prices and is used to reflect the true trend of inflation.

• A reading close to or below 2.8% would strengthen market expectations for a December rate cut and boost investor confidence in a continued slowdown in inflation.
• If the data exceeds expectations, it could trigger caution in risk assets and lead the market to question whether the Federal Reserve can continue its easing measures.

Compared to CPI, PCE typically does not cause dramatic fluctuations, but it is equally closely watched because it directly impacts the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation model.

Image source: US Core PCE Price Index (Trading Economics)

B. Europe and Britain

1. Bank of England meeting (November 6)

The market widely expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates at 4.00%. While inflation is gradually declining, it remains above the target level, and the labor market remains tight. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report may, for the first time, hint at a potential rate-cutting cycle early next year.

Image source: UK benchmark interest rate (Trading Economics)

2. Eurozone PMI data (November 21)

October's data showed the best performance in over a year. November's readings will test the sustainability of the recovery, particularly the strength of the rebound in manufacturing and services.

3. UK Autumn Budget (November 26)

This budget will define the UK's fiscal priorities up to 2026. Markets will be closely watching tax policy, adjustments to public spending, and whether stimulus measures will be introduced, as these could all influence UK bond yields and the pound's performance.

C. Asia

1. China's economic activity data (around November 16)

Retail sales, industrial output, and fixed asset investment data will reflect whether recent stimulus policies are beginning to take effect. Strong performance will help boost regional market confidence and commodity prices.

Image source: China Industrial Production (Trading Economics)

Image source: Year-on-year growth of China's total retail sales of consumer goods (Trading Economics)

2. Loan Prime Rate (LPR, November 20)

The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains the benchmark for credit costs in China. If deflationary pressures persist, the possibility of the central bank slightly lowering it by 10 basis points cannot be ruled out, to demonstrate the policymakers' willingness to support credit expansion and stabilize economic growth.

Energy and Geopolitics

Energy prices have declined slightly in recent months, but crude oil remains a key factor influencing inflation and investor sentiment. This November, traders will focus on three main things: the latest OPEC+ decisions, developments in the US government shutdown, and the global political situation that could potentially shake markets before the end of the year.

US government shutdown

The US government shutdown has entered its second month with no substantial progress, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty.

• Impact: The delayed release of key data such as GDP, employment, and inflation makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess the state of the economy.
• Market reaction: Investors remained cautious, bond yields declined slightly, while the US dollar remained strong as a safe-haven asset.
• Next: Congress is pushing for a short-term agreement to reopen the government and resume data releases. Until then, traders will have to rely on data from private institutions and overall market sentiment to determine trends.

Image source: MSN

OPEC+ Meeting (November 30)

OPEC+ members will meet at the end of the month to assess their 2026 production plans. Their decisions will directly impact future energy price trends.

• If current production levels are maintained, crude oil prices may remain at just over $60 per barrel, a level that is comfortable for both producing and consuming countries.
• Further production cuts could cause oil prices to rise again, thus slowing the decline in inflation.
• If production increases: oil prices may fall, but this could also reflect weakening global demand.

Currently, OPEC+ appears more inclined to maintain price stability than to adopt aggressive production cuts or increases. Stable oil prices help central banks continue their easing policies. However, a sudden shift in OPEC+'s strategy could rapidly alter inflation expectations, thereby impacting exchange rates, stock markets, and other asset classes.

Image source: SisaJournal

Global hotspots

Currently, the easing of trade tensions between the US and China , the fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip , and the war in Ukraine are all shaping the global economic outlook. When the situation remains stable, energy prices typically tend to stabilize as well; however, if the conflict escalates again on either side, oil and commodity prices could rise rapidly, posing new challenges for central banks in controlling inflation.

Key Events in the Crypto Market

Key developments worth noting

Liquidity and market fund flows

• ETF Inflows: BlackRock's IBIT remains the biggest driver of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Continued inflows in November will be key to sustaining BTC's upward momentum.
• Derivatives Expiration: Deribit options and CME Bitcoin futures will both expire on November 28th at 08:00 (UTC), coinciding with Thanksgiving week in the United States. Decreased liquidity could lead to increased price volatility.

Market Narrative Observation

• Infinex: Strong pre-sale demand could drive more attention to DeFi projects that are "easy for ordinary users to get started with".
• Hyperliquid: The effectiveness of its unlocking and buyback mechanisms will affect the market's long-term trust in decentralized derivatives platforms.
• x402: It is worth paying attention to actual API access and transaction cases to observe whether machine payment has truly moved from concept to practical application.

Image source: x402 project overview page (x402.org)

Summary: How to prepare for the market

In November 2025, the themes of macroeconomics and crypto intertwine, determining the market's next move. Whether it's inflation data, central bank meetings, or token unlocks, these are not just isolated events, but key signals reflecting changes in global capital, confidence, and liquidity.

To achieve a steady and successful outcome, you can do the following:

• Make a note of key dates. Mark November 7, 13, 19, 20, 21, 26, 28, and 30 on your calendar, as data or policy decisions on these days may trigger rapid market movements.
• Control leverage. Avoid high leverage before the release of major data such as employment reports or CPI, as sudden fluctuations can easily lead to forced liquidation.
• Check your positions. Market liquidity is typically low during Thanksgiving week, and price volatility can be amplified. Adjust your positions in advance to mitigate unexpected risks.
• Maintain diversification. Allocate your assets to both traditional and digital assets to mitigate investment risk.
• Focus on facts, not noise. Follow official data and confirmed information, not market rumors.

For novice traders, the goal isn't to predict every data point, but rather to understand "when data is most important." Mastering timing, learning to manage risk, and remaining calm after the release of real data will put you ahead of most investors who chase trends.

FAQ

1. What impact does the US government shutdown have on the market?

This leads to delays in the release of key data such as GDP and inflation, forcing traders to rely on private estimates, thus increasing short-term market volatility.

2. If the CPI data is weak, will the Federal Reserve definitely cut interest rates in December?

Not necessarily. While it might help fuel expectations of interest rate cuts, the Fed will remain cautious unless inflation consistently approaches 2%.

3. What impact will the OPEC+ decision at the end of this month have?

If production levels are maintained, oil prices will remain stable; further production cuts could push up inflation; and increased production could mean weaker global demand.

4. Will a government shutdown affect investors' views on the US dollar?

The impact is minimal. The US dollar remains a safe-haven asset and remains strong, while bond yields have declined slightly.

5. Does token unlocking always lead to a price drop?

Not necessarily. If the project is well-communicated in advance and market demand is strong, the downside potential for prices is usually limited.

6. What are the main themes in the crypto market this month?

The focus is on the “simplified DeFi” driven by Infinex, and the concept of AI machine payments brought about by the x402 protocol.

7. How should novice traders deal with the volatility in November?

Maintain low leverage, pay attention to key dates, and try to avoid frequent trading before and after major data releases. Prudence is more important than impulsiveness.

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