Original author: KarenZ, Foresight News

MegaETH has become a hot project in the crypto market with its technological breakthrough of "real-time blockchain" and its ecological concept of community building.

While the Ethereum ecosystem is still struggling with performance bottlenecks, MegaETH is reshaping the imaginary boundaries of the Layer 2 track with its technical declaration of "100,000 TPS + millisecond latency".

From the early seed round of financing in which Vitalik participated, to the Echo community's lightning fundraising, to the NFT sales at the beginning of this year, every step of MegaETH has touched the nerves of the market.

Now, this project, backed by Vitalik Buterin, is about to launch a public sale on the Sonar platform. Is this a rare opportunity for ordinary investors to enter the market? Or is it the final straw in the accumulation of risks?

This article will analyze the financing context, valuation logic, core value and potential risks.

MegaETH's Financing History: From VC and Vitalik's Endorsement to Community Co-construction

As an Ethereum L2 project that promises to achieve "real-time blockchain", MegaETH's financing history shows an evolutionary trajectory from VC financing to community-driven sales.

In June 2024, MegaETH announced the completion of a $20 million seed round of financing, led by Dragonfly, with participation from Figment Capital, Robot Ventures, Big Brain Holdings and other institutions. Angel investors included Vitalik Buterin, ConsenSys founder and CEO Joseph Lubin, EigenLayer founder and CEO Sreeram Kannan, ETHGlobal co-founder Kartik Talwar, Helius Labs co-founder and CEO Mert Mumtaz, Hasu and Jordan Fish (also known as Cobie), etc.

In December 2024, MegaETH raised $10 million in less than three minutes through Cobie's Echo platform, far exceeding its target of $4.2 million. This round of financing attracted approximately 3,200 investors from 94 countries, with an average investment of $3,140 per investor.

At the time, MegaETH co-founder Shuyao Kong told The Block that the seed and Echo rounds of financing adopted a structure of equity plus token warrants, and the valuations of both rounds were "nine figures", which means that the FDV was at least US$100 million.

To the community's surprise, MegaETH launched "The Fluffle" NFT series in February of this year for innovative fundraising, further expanding its community base. All 10,000 NFTs in this series are non-transferable SBTs (Soul Bound Tokens) and are sold on a whitelist basis. Whitelist holders are priced at 1 ETH, and they receive a minimum 5% stake in future token distributions. 50% will be unlocked on the TGE day, with the remaining unlocked gradually over the next six months.

This round of NFT issuance was divided into two phases. The first phase (5,000 tokens) was a retroactive phase, targeting those actively involved in the crypto industry (from supporting key protocols to individuals leading local communities). A small portion was also allocated to influential early believers in the MegaETH community and various strategic partners, some of which were distributed in the form of free minting. A week after the launch, MegaETH announced the completion of the first phase of NFT issuance.

MegaETH previously planned to release the second phase of NFTs several months after the first phase, aiming to provide similar participation opportunities for users who consistently drive influential social and on-chain engagement for MegaETH. This round differs in that the quota will be allocated to MegaETH's flagship accelerator program, Mega Mafia. Each team will receive a portion of the quota to distribute to their respective communities. A small portion of this round's quota will be reserved for general users through social media analysis.

According to the MegaETH website, the latest community sale is open to all users who have successfully completed identity verification on the Sonar platform. Payment will be made using USDT on the Ethereum mainnet, likely using an English auction with a fixed maximum price. Choosing a 1-year lockup period will entitle participants to a 10% discount on the final token price. All US participants are required to lock in tokens.

Valuation logic: historical pricing, market expectations and core value

The evolution of MegaETH’s valuation is closely linked to its financing history, market expectations, technological progress, distribution mechanism, and ecosystem.

Historical financing valuation: From $100 million to $540 million

As mentioned earlier, MegaETH’s $20 million seed round and $10 million Echo round in June and December 2024, respectively, both had nine-digit FDVs.

In the first phase of NFT issuance in February of this year, according to a screenshot released by Adam Hollander, the then chief marketing officer of OpenSea, MegaETH raised 4,964 ETH in the first phase of NFT issuance, which was worth US$13.29 million at the time.

According to the author's calculations, this $13.29 million represents at least 2.5% of the token distribution rights. It can be calculated that based on the NFT fundraising situation, MegaETH's FDV was around $540 million at the time.

Polymarket Market Forecast: 86% probability of hitting $2 billion FDV

In Polymarket’s prediction market for “FDV after the first day of MegaETH’s launch,” the probability of betting on FDV exceeding $2 billion is 86%, the probability of betting on FDV exceeding $4 billion is 57%, and the probability of betting on FDV exceeding $6 billion is 21%.

This means that if MegaETH FDV reaches US$2 billion, the first batch of NFT holders will have a profit multiple of 3.7 times (calculated in US dollars), and the profit space for participants in the seed and Echo rounds will be even more substantial.

Platform Effect: The "Money-Making Effect" of Sonar's First Phase Project

The Sonar platform (a subsidiary of Echo, founded by Cobie) where this community sale took place has a strong traffic base. Its first fundraising project, Plasma, performed exceptionally well—its price soared to 34 times the sale price ($0.05) on the fourth day after the TGE, and remains up 9 times. This platform effect has further boosted market expectations for MegaETH's valuation.

Core Values: Triple Moats of Technology, Mechanism, and Ecosystem

MegaETH continues to attract capital and community attention due to its differentiated competitiveness in technological innovation, distribution mechanisms, and ecosystem development.

In terms of technology, in response to the common problems of existing L2, such as second-level delays and insufficient throughput, MegaETH has significantly improved the scalability of Ethereum by optimizing the execution environment and node architecture, while maintaining full compatibility with EVM, directly addressing the core needs of Web 3 applications such as high-frequency trading and real-time chain games.

In terms of distribution mechanism, MegaETH's distribution mechanism is largely community-oriented, from seed round financing to Echo, a financing platform limited to the elite community, to NFT sales for people deeply involved in the Crypto industry, and the upcoming ICO on Sonar, a fairer public token sales platform on Echo, avoiding the monopoly of institutional shares in traditional financing.

It is worth emphasizing that the "Fluffle" series SBT issued by MegaETH has also abandoned the tradable attribute. The token release adopts the "TGE 50% + 6-month linear unlocking" model. At the beginning of the unlocking, the holder's token reward release is deeply linked to the network interaction, and real user participation is encouraged through a dynamic evolution mechanism.

In terms of ecosystem construction, MegaETH has been gradually developed through the accelerator program MegaMafia, the flagship builder center MegaForge, and the stablecoin MegaUSD. The test network has attracted multiple application deployments, covering DeFi, social, games, AI and other fields. Some selected applications include DEX GTE, stablecoin engine CAP, real-time perpetual contract platform Valhalla, trend trading platform NOISE, etc.

Risk Warning

Despite its strengths, MegaETH still faces numerous challenges. Comparatively, the valuations of current mainstream Layer 2 projects have established benchmarks for the market: Arbitrum's FDV is $3.2 billion, OP's FDV is $2 billion, Starknet's FDV is $1.2 billion, and Zksync's FDV is $800 million. Against this backdrop, it remains uncertain whether MegaETH can surpass the $2 billion FDV.

As an early-stage project, MegaETH faces risks such as technical implementation and overall market volatility. Investors should exercise due diligence and make prudent decisions based on pricing, FDV, and the token economic model after detailed sale terms are announced.