Key information at a glance
This surge is supported by fundamentals: ETH has risen nearly 80% since the beginning of June, driven by continued whale buying, reduced exchange liquidity, and a significant increase in staking.
Staking activity continues to accelerate and ETH supply is becoming increasingly tight: approximately 30% of ETH is currently locked for staking, with over 1.5 million ETH added between June and mid-July alone.
The derivatives market is hot but balanced: ETH perpetual contract holdings hit a record high, while the funding rate remained neutral, indicating that both long and short sides were relatively rational.
The pace of institutional entry is accelerating: more than 10 listed companies have included ETH in their balance sheets, and the Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows of more than US$3 billion in two months.
Ethereum leads the rotation of altcoin sectors: As Bitcoins market capitalization share decreases, ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, and Ethereum becomes the core asset in this round of market rotation.
Ethereum is hot again! After being quiet for several months, ETH suddenly gained momentum in early June, with a rise of nearly 80% in just a few weeks. By mid-July, the price was close to $4,000, outperforming most mainstream currencies.
This is not a false fire caused by calling orders. On-chain data and market dynamics are sending strong signals: whales are buying in large quantities, the ETH balance of exchanges continues to decline, and the number of participants in staking has also hit a new high . More interestingly, the trading volume of ETH perpetual contracts has increased significantly, and some institutions and listed companies have also begun to allocate real money to ETH.
In this article, we will analyze the driving force behind this round of ETH market from multiple perspectives, including on-chain data, derivatives trading, institutional trends, etc. Whether you already hold ETH, are considering participating in ETH staking , or are preparing to operate the ETH/USDT trading pair, this information can help you see the possible direction of Ethereums next move.
Table of Contents
ETH price performance: What’s behind this surge?
On-chain signals: whale buying, supply tightening
Ethereum staking: The more ETH locked, the less supply
ETH perpetual contract: leverage increases, but the market remains stable
Institutional entry: More and more big players are buying ETH
Market rotation: BTC market share declines, ETH takes over and leads the rise
Analyst’s view: How high can Ethereum go?
ETH price performance: What’s behind this surge?
Ethereum is really going strong this time. Since the beginning of June, ETH has soared from about $2,100 to nearly $3,800. In the past week alone, the increase was more than 20%, second only to Dogecoin among the top 20 cryptocurrencies.
This surge has pushed ETH towards a key psychological level: $4,000.
Why is $4,000 so important?
For many traders, $4,000 is not just a round number, it is also a very critical technical level in Ethereum’s past few rounds of market movements:
It had been one of the all-time highs during the 2021 bull run;
ETH has challenged this price several times in 2022 and 2024, but has not managed to break through;
If it can break through and hold this time, the next target may be $4,200 to $4,500;
But if it is suppressed again, it is possible to fall back to the $3,300 to $3,500 range.
Image Credit: TradingView
Technical Signals and Market Sentiment
Short-term indicators (such as the relative strength index RSI and the stochastic oscillator) show that ETH is currently in an overbought state. This usually means that the price may have a certain correction or consolidation.
However, this wave of rise looks more solid than the past few. Several important signals support this view:
On-chain data shows that whales are continuously increasing their positions;
More and more ETH is flowing out of exchanges, reducing selling pressure;
A large amount of ETH is staked, and the circulation in the market is further reduced.
When both technical and fundamental factors work together, prices tend to be more stable. This time, Ethereum seems to have really found a solid foundation and is expected to go further.
On-chain signals: whale buying, supply tightening
Ethereum s rise is not groundless, and the data on the chain has given a very clear signal. The most noteworthy thing is the movement of whales - these big players are quietly buying a large amount of ETH, providing solid support for this round of market.
Whales are adding to their positions
In the past two weeks, on-chain data shows that large investors have added more than 500,000 ETH in total. One address even bought nearly $50 million worth of ETH at an average price of around $3,700. This scale of buying is obviously not for short-term speculation, but more like a long-term layout.
Image Credit: CryptoQuant
Exchange funds continue to flow out
After the purchase, the behavior of the big players is more telling - they did not leave the ETH on the exchange, but transferred it to a cold wallet or staking contract, indicating that they have no plans to sell it in the short term.
Some key data are as follows:
Currently, the ETH reserves on exchanges have dropped to about 19.7 million, a one-year low;
On July 16 alone, more than 147,000 ETH were transferred out of exchanges;
Throughout July, the net outflow trend of ETH has been very obvious.
When there is less ETH available for sale on exchanges, even a small amount of buying can drive prices up quickly.
Image Credit: CryptoQuant
Staking is also a key force
It is worth noting that a large part of the ETH transferred out of the exchange is used for staking. According to on-chain data, nearly 30% of ETH is currently in a staking state, which is equivalent to being locked and cannot be circulated in the short term.
That is:
Whales are buying;
Retail investors are transferring out;
Staking is increasing;
There are fewer and fewer ETHs that can actually circulate in the market.
The supply is tightening, but the demand is continuing to increase. This is the real underlying logic driving the rise of ETH.
Ethereum staking: The more ETH locked, the less supply
Staking can be said to have played a key role in the recent rise of ETH . Since Ethereum was fully upgraded to the PoS (Proof of Stake) mechanism, ETH holders can earn income through staking. This mechanism is quietly changing the supply and demand pattern of the entire market.
How much ETH is currently staked?
According to on-chain data, nearly 30% of ETH is currently locked in staking contracts. In other words, this part of ETH has been out of circulation and will not appear on exchanges or enter the buy and sell orders in the short term.
What this means for the market is clear:
The amount of liquidity in the market has decreased;
Once demand arises, prices will be more easily pushed up.
Image Credit: CryptoQuant
The pace of staking is accelerating
Over the past six weeks, the pace of ETH staking has accelerated significantly:
From June to mid-July, more than 1.5 million ETH were newly staked
Not only retail investors are participating, many institutions are also entering the market
Some listed companies even directly use part of their company funds to pledge ETH.
This is not just about “earning interest without doing anything”, but a vote of confidence in the future development of Ethereum.
What does this mean for ETH price?
The essence of staking is locking. As more and more ETH is locked into validator nodes , the amount available for sale on exchanges will naturally decrease. In addition, as whales continue to buy and the market heats up, the supply side is getting tighter and tighter, and prices naturally have a basis for rising.
If this trend continues, ETH may become increasingly scarce in the future. People who want to buy it at a low price may really have to line up.
ETH perpetual contract: leverage increases, but the market remains stable
This wave of rise is not only driven by the ETH spot market , but also by the derivatives market. Data shows that the open interest of ETH perpetual contracts continues to rise, setting a new record high. One days trading volume even soared by 27%, which shows that traders confidence in entering the market is increasing.
Image Credit: CryptoQuant
What is the market sentiment like?
Generally speaking, an increase in open interest means that leverage is accumulating. But this time, the funding rate gave a different signal. Simply put, the funding rate is an interest settlement mechanism between long and short parties.
Current funding rate status:
Close to neutral, no obvious bias to bullish or bearish
Long and short sides are evenly matched
The market structure is relatively healthy and not so extreme
In other words, the current market is not as one-sided as before, nor is it as prone to stampedes as in the period of high leverage.
Image Credit: Coinalyze
Is there a possibility of a “short margin call”?
Although ETH has risen a lot, the number of short sellers has not decreased significantly. Moreover, near the end of July, short positions are still showing signs of rising.
According to Coinglass data, on the Binance platform alone, if ETH breaks through $4,000, nearly $960 million of short orders may be forced to close. These forced buy orders may further push up prices.
Image Credit: Coinglass
Summarize
The ETH perpetual contract market is currently quite hot, but it has not yet reached the point of being overheated. As long as market sentiment remains cautious and funding rates remain stable, the futures market is likely to continue to be a booster for the rise, rather than immediately triggering a market reversal.
Institutional entry: More and more big players are buying ETH
Ethereum is gaining more and more favor from institutional investors. In the past, corporate treasuries preferred Bitcoin, but now, ETH is rapidly rising and becoming a new focus. More and more companies, funds, and even listed companies are including Ethereum in their investment portfolios.
Companies are buying ETH
Since May, more than 10 listed companies have disclosed that they have increased their holdings of ETH on their company books, including:
SharpLink Gaming
BitMine Immersion
BTCS Inc.
Bit Digital
These companies have bought more than 570,000 ETH in total. More importantly, some companies even raised funds to buy ETH. This operation is obviously not for short-term speculation, but for the long-term optimism about the value of Ethereum.
ETH-related investment products are also very popular
Investment tools focused on ETH are also continuing to attract money. Products such as the Ethereum spot ETF have seen net inflows of more than $3 billion in the past two months. For institutional investors, such products provide a compliant and convenient way to allocate ETH without the need to custody assets themselves.
Coinbase, a mainstream trading platform in the United States, also reflects this trend. The price of ETH on the platform has long been higher than the global average, indicating that many institutions are willing to spend a premium to buy coins - as long as the platform is formal and the funds are safe, they are willing to pay more.
Image Credit: Coinglass
ETH is becoming a digital infrastructure
DeFi, staking, NFT, real-world assets on-chain... ETH is penetrating into every aspect of blockchain. Many institutions no longer regard ETH as an ordinary altcoin, but as the operating system of the digital world.
This change in cognition is also attracting more long-term funds to enter the market. If you are an investor who is looking at the development of blockchain in the long term, now is the time to re-evaluate the strategic position of ETH.
Market rotation: BTC market share declines, ETH takes over and leads the rise
The recent surge in ETH is not an isolated event, but part of the “rotation” of the entire crypto market. Bitcoin’s market position is quietly changing, and more and more funds are beginning to flow into Ethereum and other high-quality projects.
BTC market share is shrinking
In the past month, Bitcoin ’s market capitalization has fallen from about 65% to close to 60%. In a multi-trillion dollar market, this 5% change is actually a big deal.
Generally speaking, when BTC’s market dominance decreases, it indicates that funds are flowing out of Bitcoin and into other crypto assets.
Image Credit: Coinglass
ETH takes the lead and takes center stage
One of the biggest beneficiaries of this rotation is ETH. You can see several very clear signals:
ETH/BTC exchange rate rises nearly 32% in a week
As investor interest in altcoins grows, ETH’s market share also increases
Among the top ten mainstream currencies, ETH is second only to Dogecoin and far exceeds other currencies.
All these indicate that funds are leaning towards ETH and investors attention is shifting from Bitcoin.
Image Credit: TradingView
Is altcoin market brewing?
Not only ETH, the market value of the entire altcoin sector has risen by more than 40% since mid-June. This is a very clear signal that market risk appetite is returning.
At the same time, the “Altcoin Season Index” also broke through 50, entering the range that historically often heralds the start of altcoin bull markets.
Image Credit: CoinMarketCap
Why is ETH always at the forefront?
As the most mature and ecologically deep altcoin, ETH is often the first target of rising prices when the market rotates. It has strong liquidity, high recognition, a stable ecological foundation, and the proportion of medium- and long-term holders is also increasing.
If this wave of market rotation continues to evolve, ETH is likely to continue to lead the entire altcoin sector, and other projects will follow suit.
Analyst’s view: How high can Ethereum go?
ETH s rise has prompted many institutions and analysts to give their own predictions. In the short term, most people are eyeing a key position: $4,000.
Short-term focus: First see if $4,000 is broken
There are two common judgments in the market:
If ETH manages to break above $4,000, the next move could be towards $4,200 to $4,500
But if it is suppressed again, it is possible to pull back to $3,200 to $3,500 for consolidation.
From a technical perspective, both the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the Stochastic Oscillator show that ETH is somewhat overbought and there may be a short-term correction. However, considering the on-chain data and the continued entry of institutional funds, many people regard short-term corrections as opportunities to increase their positions.
Mid- to long-term outlook: Divergence widens
Looking a little further out, analysts forecasts start to diverge:
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes that ETH could reach $10,000 to $15,000 by the end of 2025
Crypto blogger Wu said that blockchain is more optimistic and directly called out the goal of $15,000 to $20,000
Slightly more conservative institutions predict that by the end of this year, ETH may rise to $6,000 to $8,000 if staking and institutional demand remain stable.
What factors do analysts focus on?
Regardless of the prediction, the core logic that everyone values is roughly the same:
Whales continue to build positions, and the ETH inventory on exchanges continues to decline
ETH pledge rate rises, circulation decreases
The inflow of funds to the spot Ethereum ETF is stable, and the funds in the entire market are also flowing from BTC to ETH and other high-quality altcoins
Even the most conservative models generally agree that ETH ’s long-term outlook is much healthier than it was a year ago.
Finally: Is ETH Really Ready to Break $4,000?
This wave of Ethereums market does not seem to be a flash in the pan. The price trend is strong, the on-chain data is sufficient to support it, and institutions are constantly entering the market. Whether it is whales adding positions, corporate pledges, or the surge in ETH contract trading volume, it all shows one thing: the market is moving upward.
However, the $4,000 barrier is still a key psychological and technical level. If it is successfully broken through, it may usher in a new market with a larger cycle; but if it is suppressed again, we may have to wait a while.
So whether you want to trade ETH/USDT , participate in ETH staking to earn income , or hold ETH for a long time, this node is now very critical. Ethereum is no longer just a smart contract platform, it is gradually evolving into the underlying structure of the blockchain economy, and is expected to compete with Bitcoin in the crypto world.
The next few weeks may determine whether ETH has the staying power in this round of trend. But one thing is certain: Ethereum has not stopped, and the capital and users behind it are not idle either.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why did ETH rise so fast in mid-2025?
This wave of rise is the result of the superposition of multiple factors, including the continued increase in whales positions, the reduction of exchange ETH inventory, the sharp increase in pledged volume, and institutional purchases from ETFs and corporate funds.
2. How important is ETH’s $4,000 mark?
$4,000 was a strong resistance level in 2021, 2022 and 2024, but it failed to break through each time. If it can successfully stand on it this time, it may further rush to $4,200 or even $4,500.
3. How does ETH staking affect the price?
The pledged ETH will be locked and cannot be circulated in the market. Currently, about 30% of ETH is pledged, which greatly reduces the available liquidity in the market. Once the demand rises, the price will naturally be pushed up.
4. In this round of market, is leverage used a lot?
Although the contract open interest hit a new high, the funding rate remained neutral, indicating that market sentiment was relatively rational, the risk of excessive leverage was not high, and the risk of liquidation was temporarily controllable.
5. What do analysts think about the future of ETH?
In the short term, if it breaks through $4,000, the target will be $4,200-$4,500. There are large differences in medium- and long-term forecasts, ranging from a conservative $6,000 to an optimistic $20,000, mainly depending on the growth rate of pledges, institutional inflows and the overall market environment.
