Original author: TechFlow
The big event of the past two days is the token presale of the meme launch platform Pump.fun.
After much anticipation, PUMP opened pre-sale on July 12, and sold out shares worth a total of 500 million US dollars in just 12 minutes. This makes people sigh that it is not that the market lacks money, but that the money in the market is more inclined to wait and see and invest in big projects.
As Bitcoin breaks through new highs, PUMPs pre-sale seems to be at a delicate time point where the market turns from bull to bear and sentiment turns from pessimistic to optimistic. More people begin to FOMO, and whales continue to open long orders on Hyperliquid.
Corresponding to this is the loneliness of another group of people who failed to hit the PUMP through CEX.
Data from Pump.fun’s official website shows that several CEXs that had previously announced pre-sale cooperation with it have a share of 0 in all PUMP channels with successful pre-sales; and the shares obtained through the other CEXs with data, such as KRaken, KUcoin and Gate, account for only about 10% of the total PUMP pre-sales.
If you also try to participate in the PUMP pre-sale from CEX, you will most likely come up empty-handed.
But don’t be upset just yet, here are more data that may help you feel more balanced, and they may point to a clearer conclusion - the PUMP pre-sale may be a carnival for a few people.
Kraken, a carnival for two
In the prior arrangement, Pump.fun found 6 CEXs to cooperate with for pre-sale; no matter what the specific process and reasons were, judging from the results, the pre-sale data of three of them were all 0, which made people focus on the other three CEXs.
Kraken is the CEX with the largest share, generating a total of US$30 million in new issuance quota.
You might think that many users got PUMP through Kraken, but the actual situation may be that only 2 people got the quota.
According to Twitter user @splinter 0 n ’s monitoring of pre-sale interface data, during Kraken’s pre-sale, the value of the “Number of Participants” column was 2, which means that only 2 people participated in the new offering (2 independent addresses), and they received a total of 30 million US dollars.
(Image source: @splinter 0 n , original post address click here )
In the comment section of the post, everyone discussed who these two people were, but in general, social media tended to believe that this was a layout by a powerful whale. Ordinary investors simply could not get such a large amount of money, and had no way to participate when CEXs collectively had problems.
In addition, the blogger also showed more data, which showed that only 15 people participated through Gate, and received a total of 5 million US dollars; there were 120 Kucoin participants, who received a total of nearly 16.5 million US dollars.
In other words, the total number of participants in these three exchanges that can get PUMP shares is less than 140 people; considering that one person may hold multiple addresses, this number is estimated to be even lower.
It is worth noting that regarding the authenticity and credibility of the data, among the other data monitored by the blogger, the total number of people participating in the pre-sale, the total amount of participation and other data are almost consistent with the data officially displayed by Pump.fun.
As for the number of people who have PUMPed new shares through several CEXs, although there is no official explanation, we have reason to speculate that this is close to the actual situation.
In any case, using CEX to buy new shares is a pump for a few people and a disappointment for the majority.
Most people only bought it for $500.
If users who buy new shares through CEX cannot participate due to process failure, then will the retail investors who buy directly on the official website make a fortune?
Let’s let the data speak.
Blockworks, a well-known overseas media and data analysis platform, recently launched a data panel that allows you to intuitively see various data on this PUMP pre-sale.
First of all, a total of 10,000 independent addresses participated in the purchase, with the most concentrated purchase amounts concentrated in the range of US$100-1,000, and the median purchase amount was around US$540.
Note that this is the median, not the average. The statistical scope has excluded the situation where the average is pulled up due to purchases by a few super whales.
That is to say, most of the addresses only invested 500 US dollars; and on the Twitter timeline, you may find a lot of posts complaining about failed purchases or FOMO, and it seems that their regret level is as if they bought hundreds of thousands of US dollars.
There is often a huge gap between real data and social media sentiment. Emotions can be amplified, but there is only so much money in your wallet.
If we look at the big players, there are 202 wallets with purchase amounts exceeding $1 million, and 138 wallets with purchase amounts exceeding $500,000.
In addition, there are some interesting data that are also worthy of attention.
Among all the wallets participating in the pre-sale, new wallet addresses created within 24 hours accounted for nearly 45%.
If the pre-sale has a purchase limit for each wallet, large investors and institutions can bypass the limit and maximize their purchases by creating new wallets in batches.
In contrast, wallets that have existed for more than a year and participated in pre-sales account for less than 5%. This also supports a view discussed in the community that pre-sales are more beneficial to large investors, and old investors may become exit liquidity.
Finally, if you examine the source of funds for participating in the pre-sale directly on the Pump official website, you will find that in addition to the self-built independent address, most of the off-chain funds are actually withdrawn from Bianance, and the amount even exceeds the total number of all other CEX withdrawal addresses.
On the chain, Solanas DeFi projects such as Raydium, SolFi and Jupiter have contributed a lot of funding. Looking at them together, among the more than 10,000 addresses that have participated, the proportion of funds coming from their own independent addresses and DEX combined has exceeded 60%, and CEX accounts for less than 30%.
This also illustrates the importance of channels once again.
For most crypto projects, the shorter the path to participation, the better; people tend to take the easy way out. If they withdraw funds from CEX to their own address and then participate in the pre-sale, their willingness to participate will inevitably decrease.
Therefore, it is not surprising that we now see that each CEX has directly integrated on-chain IPOs and created its own on-chain wallet into its own APP entrance.
Edgewalker
Looking at the pre-sale data of these PUMPs together, the seemingly open and decentralized pre-sales are increasingly centralized at the data level.
The low-cost creation of new wallets, the long-short game before Hyperliquids listing, the problems with the final participating channels of CEXs...all these make the PUMP pre-sale seem more like an elite game and arrangement than a community-driven opportunity.
This is not the first time we have seen FOMO and criticism surrounding a token being amplified on social media. The leeks are always chasing the illusion of the next 100x coin, but often find themselves just marginal participants in the face of data.
And as we continue to wait and see in loneliness, the market will become increasingly dependent on the capital flow of a few people.
Standing at this point in time when Bitcoin has reached a new high, marginal walkers still feel that it is lonely at the top.
