Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author: Golem ( @web3_golem )
The much-anticipated PUMP token ICO was launched on time at 22:00 tonight. Although the market was still full of negative voices such as criticism of the pump.fun team and the overvaluation of PUMP before the token sale, the truth of group friends FUD, I work hard is still very attractive.
The PUMP token public sale was very popular, and 150 billion tokens (15% of the total supply) were sold out in 12 minutes. According to Arkham monitoring, 189 addresses deposited $1 million in the public sale on the PUMP chain, and there were even crashes on trading platforms or due to excessive instantaneous traffic.
In addition, there was a small episode tonight. According to the information on the official website of pump.fun, 12.5% of the tokens were sold in this public sale, raising $500 million. This is different from the previously announced plan to sell 15% of the tokens and raise $600 million. The market speculated that this might be due to the public sale systems of several exchanges not being synchronized. As of now, pump.fun has not publicly clarified the reason for the difference.
In any case, tonight’s public sale is not the end, but the beginning of a larger-scale market game. According to official regulations, although ICO participants can receive tokens after the public sale, the tokens are initially non-transferable (non-tradable). The token transfer permission will be enabled within 48-72 hours after the end of ICO, which means that the earliest may be the opening of next Monday.
So, after the market opens, will the outcome make traders slap their thighs or surprise? There are two mainstream scenarios circulating in the market:
Panic selling at the opening of the market, the official release of good news to pull back the value
The first scenario is that when the PUMP token opens next week, the token price does not rise sharply in a short period of time, and the paper investors who participated in the public sale may sell out due to panic. After the short-term speculators have sold out, the official will release good news to match the price increase and successfully wash out the retail investors. This scenario makes sense, and MoonRock Capital CEO Simon also holds the same view . , it believes that the PUMP token will first fall to US$2.5 billion after opening and then rise to US$20 billion.
The FUD faced by Pump.fun in this ICO is unprecedented. The liquidity of the Meme track is gradually dissipating, the valuation of $4 billion is too high, the daily income and user activity of Pump.fun are declining, the leading position of the Meme launch platform is no longer guaranteed, the token has no actual value, the team token share unlocking plan is not transparent, and the previous continuous selling of SOL for cashing out, etc. If the token price is not pulled up after the opening, these FUD remarks will be rationalized, and Pump.fun’s identity as an industry bad guy will be confirmed. In addition, 33% of the tokens (ICO value of $1.32 billion) will be directly circulated after the opening. When panic selling occurs, the market may not be able to withstand such a huge selling pressure.
But the most exciting part of this script is the second half, when Pump.fun officials and market makers will use these FUDs to absorb funds and release the backlog of good news after successfully washing the car. So, what kind of good news will Pump.fun release to re-mobilize market sentiment?
According to Lookonchain, Pump.fun has not deposited SOL into Kraken for nearly a month since June 10. The last time Pump.fun sold SOL was on June 11, when it deposited 132,180 SOL into Kraken. So far this year, Pump.fun has sold a total of 2,476,697 SOL, with a total value of $404.64 million. According to DeFiLlama data, Pump.fun has earned $31.94 million in the past 30 days. If all these SOLs are not sold, it is possible that it will announce that they will be injected into the PUMP pool or issued as rewards for users to provide liquidity for PUMP.
Secondly, the core FUD of Pump.fun is that its tokens may have no practical value. However, Alon, the founder of Pump.fun, previously stated that the vision of pump.fun is to build a Solana native platform, and the PUMP token will enable creators to control their finances. He also stated that the key development directions of Pump.fun in the future include the function of the creator revenue sharing mechanism; further investment and focus on the Pump.fun live broadcast function; and expansion of the team through recruitment and strategic acquisitions, with the first acquisition to be announced soon.
All of these are potential positives for the PUMP token, as the advancement of these developments means that Pump.fun is transforming from a single meme launch platform to a social platform similar to TikTok and Facebook, but with a token-driven approach.
All of the above signals are likely to build confidence among long-term holders, who will choose to buy after the panic selling of PUMP tokens. Coupled with the collective rebound of the altcoin market led by ETH this week and the recovery of the market, investors valuation ceiling for Pump.fun may also increase.
The market opened higher, pulling out the shorts, and then continued to fall.
There is also an unprecedented disagreement on Pump.funs coin issuance. There are a lot of FUD voices in the Chinese-speaking area, but there are also overseas players who continue to be optimistic. In addition, there may be many players who are not optimistic about the PUMP token and short it before the market opens. Therefore, the second market generally believes that the ideal scenario is that PUMP will rise after the opening, bursting the shorts, and then the price will continue to fall.
The possibility of the opening price being pulled up comes from pure pre-market contract trading games on the one hand, and from players who are truly FOMOing PUMP tokens on the other. Chinese KOL 0x Sun wrote that overseas KOLs such as zAnsem and Izebel are very optimistic about PUMP. Some foreigners are even afraid that they will not be able to grab the public sale, so they open multiple contracts in advance. Including VCs bidding $720 million at a valuation of $4 billion, which also proves that this price is reasonable. He also expected that the PUMP public sale would be completed relatively quickly, and predicted that PUMP would not have any problems until the opening. The spot price would rise by 40-80% after the opening, and then start to fall, and everyone would be happy.
Another Chinese KOL Hanbalongwang also said , Overseas players are very FOMO, and they open long positions at a premium, fearing that they will not be able to get them. According to market information, 3 hours before the public sale, the price difference between PUMPs pre-market price on Hyperliquid and its pre-market price on Binance was 5% .
The final outcome of this scenario is that after the short-term FOMO, the market will return to rationality and believe that Pump.fun is not worthy of a valuation of 4 billion US dollars. In addition, the previous statement by the founder of Pump.fun that pre-sale is a scam has almost overdrawn the markets trust in it, so it is natural for it to become the Otherside monkey land of the Meme era.
0x Sun, a Chinese KOL who supports this scenario, also shared his own operation . He said, The original plan was to deposit $2 million and hedge $1 million, but due to the order limit, a total of $1.5 million was deposited in the end, and $1 million has been hedged at 0.0054. If the contract reaches more than $0.008 between now and the opening, it will be fully covered and naked short. If the negative rate is fully raised, the short will be closed in advance. If nothing happens and the arbitrage is successfully completed, based on a 35% increase, the profit rate of 1 times the margin is 17.5%, and even if 4 times the margin is left, there is still a 7% profit rate.
The above are two scenarios after the PUMP token opens. Which one do you prefer?
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