This article comes from: Fortune
Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina ); Translated by Azuma ( @azuma_eth )
Arthur Hayes is an iconic figure in the early days of Bitcoin. He co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal problems for violating US regulations. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish adequate anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation and paid a fine, but received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.
Currently, Hayes focuses on managing his family fund Maelstrom, while remaining a highly influential figure in the crypto asset space. Fortune contributing writer Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market — including predicting that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and is expected to break $1 million in 2028.
During the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and altcoin markets and explained why he chose to allocate 20% of his assets to gold.
Below is the full interview, which has been condensed and edited.
Q1: About the real deficit of the United States
Anna: You called the U.S. Treasury’s recent lending operations a “smoke screen.” Why?
Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been draining its checking account (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using special measures (underfunded government projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, resulting in the TGA falling from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means that $300 billion of spending was not achieved through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale is far greater than the official data.
This is very confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, the US government cannot borrow more money on a net basis, but they use various accounting tricks to maintain spending without breaking the limit. From January to March 2025, the Treasury borrowed 22% more than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.
Q2: About market liquidity
Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Arthur Hayes: I think the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much greater than the public data shows, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to provide maximum leverage to these debts through the banking system. The end result is a further flood of global dollar liquidity because the U.S. government is increasing spending.
That, in a nutshell, is what the repo operation is all about and why I believe it will increase market liquidity. Based on this, I believe Bitcoin bottomed on April 9 and will continue to rise significantly as the government continues to borrow and Bessent secures low-cost funding.
Q3: About the Shanzhai Season
Anna: So how high does Bitcoin need to rise to start the altcoin market? What are the key factors that drive the altcoin season?
Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise to the $150,000-$200,000 range. I expect this to happen in the summer or early third quarter, and then funds will start to rotate into various altcoins.
Q4: Expected increase in bull market
Anna: Do you think the next altcoin market will see a crazy super-cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only rebound slightly?
Arthur Hayes: It is unlikely that the grand event of all coins skyrocketing 100 times in 2021 will be repeated. New narrative hotspots will appear in the market, and some coins may rise wildly, but there is a reason why those long-term stagnant dinosaur coins in your holdings do not rise. Many projects have inflated valuations, low circulation, lack of real users and revenue, and rely solely on exchanges to hype up their coins. Now the price has fallen by 95%. I don’t think they will have a bright performance in the next cycle.
Q5 : Regarding personal income expectations
Anna: What is your expected rate of return in this round of market? What is the target price and rate of return you usually set?
Arthur Hayes: At least it has to outperform the rise of Bitcoin. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying assets must be able to exceed the return of Bitcoin.
Q6 : About Trump
Anna: What are your expectations for Trump’s encryption policy?
Arthur Hayes: His team should introduce policies that are favorable to crypto, but this does not mean that the specific projects you hold will definitely appreciate, nor does it mean that the policies will proceed according to your expected schedule.
The markets expectations are so high that some even believe that crypto policy will be Trumps top priority. But dont forget that Trump is a politician and he has too many higher priority matters to deal with. We need to be patient.
Q7 : About gold
Anna: We have seen a sharp rise in gold amidst the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty. Do you have an allocation to gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?
Arthur Hayes: I am a long-term gold holder, with physical gold bars in my vault, and I also own a lot of gold mining stocks - which are still undervalued given the surge in gold prices. I think gold has a lot of room to rise as central banks continue to increase their holdings.
More importantly, I expect the US to significantly revalue its gold reserves, diluting its debt through a devaluation of the dollar against gold. By the end of this cycle, gold prices could reach $10,000 to $20,000.
Gold accounts for about 20% of my personal portfolio.
Q8 : About ETH vs SOL
Anna: This ratio is quite high! There are a lot of debates about ETH and SOL in the market now. Which one do you prefer?
Arthur Hayes: I think ETH has more upside potential, even though it is under scrutiny right now - everyone thinks it is doing nothing and the development team is making mistakes, but the reality is that it still has the highest TVL, the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Yes, although its price performance has been disappointing since 2020.
SOL is clearly outperforming, but if I were to make a new allocation in fiat currency right now, I think ETH could outperform SOL in the next 18-24 months of the bull market.
Q9 : About $1 million in BTC
Anna: You previously predicted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. When will this goal be achieved?
Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the end of President Trumps term, which is the end of 2028.
Q10 : Expected annual trend
Anna: How do you expect the specific trends of the crypto market this year?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise, and it could get close to $200,000 in this rally. Then the altcoin season comes, and well see some interesting things. By the end of the year, the target price for Bitcoin is about $250,000.
