Original｜Odaily Planet Daily
Author: jk
As the US election approaches, the tension on the political stage is growing. The game between Trump and Harris is becoming more and more intense, and the poll data is constantly changing. The winning rate of both sides seems to be full of variables. At the same time, the craze for Meme coins is also continuing to ferment. Although there is a lack of official endorsement, Meme has already caused a stir during the election.
Next, let us explore this dual game of politics and finance, and its linkage with the Web3 world.
Polymarket win rate vs. poll data
The odds of Trump and Harris winning are almost one-sided on Polymarket. At present, according to the latest Polymarket data, Trump's winning rate leads by more than 20 percentage points, and this part of the winning rate is generated when the total amount has reached 2.4 billion US dollars, not a niche market where one side's opinion dominates the mainstream.
Polymarket win rate chart. Source: Polymarket
However, according to the latest poll data, Harris' support among voters is not only not behind, but is even slightly higher than Trump.
Let’s look at the polling odds from three different data sources:
CNN shows that Harris' current winning rate is 50%, two percentage points ahead of Trump.
CNN election prediction chart. Source: CNN
Of course, because the American media has some red/blue tendencies, and CNN is a blue media, let's take a look at the predictions of the traditional red media Fox:
Fox News election prediction chart. Source: Fox News
The latest polls from both media outlets show that Harris' campaign combination is superior. Specifically, according to statistics from the neutral media Project 538, well-known media including Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and the Economist conducted a total of 22 polls in October, and the results showed that Harris had a lead in 13 of them. They estimated the average probability of multiple polls and finally showed that Harris's winning rate was 48.1% and Trump's was 46.4%, which was also a two-point lead for Harris.
So why is there such a mismatch in the odds? This phenomenon shows Trump's strong influence in the cryptocurrency circle, and his "crypto-friendly" stance may have caused some crypto-friendly investors to have a bias in their support for him, or a sentiment similar to betting. "If Trump doesn't win, my portfolio may also plummet, so why not bet on his victory?" On the contrary, if there is enough confidence in the polls' predictions, betting on Harris is not a particularly bad choice at this time.
But from another perspective, similar situations have occurred in history. In the 2016 election, Trump's supporters were often "invisible", and many voters who were willing to vote for him were unwilling to express their views in the polls. National polls before the election generally showed that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton's support rate was about 48%, ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump's 46%. The error in the polls mainly came from the fact that the voting tendencies of white and non-college voters were not summarized, resulting in some Trump's support rates being underestimated. The analysis also pointed out that some Trump supporters did not reveal their true positions in the polls, and this "silent voter" phenomenon exacerbated the deviation of the prediction. At that time, the media and academia almost overwhelmingly supported Hillary, leading to a common phenomenon of "everyone around me supports the Democratic Party, so I dare not say it, but no one knows that I actually voted for Trump."
Therefore, although Harris has a slight advantage in the polls, Trump's market winning rate and his influence in the cryptocurrency field still make people cautious, which also explains Trump's high winning rate in Polymarket.
Related Meme Recent Trends, Some Memes Have Faded Out of Sight
MAGA recent trend. Source: Coinmarketcap
MAGA, with a market value of $150 million, has been slightly in line with the poll trend this month. It has been going down since the regional high on the 18th, and its price has stabilized between $3 and $4. TREMP, with a market value of about $28 million, is currently fluctuating around $0.3. STRUMP, with a market value of $18 million, is currently priced at 0.007781, with a large fluctuation range. In the first echelon, the smallest market value is FIGHT, with a market value of about $11 million, and a price of about $0.01. Among them, the first three memes are more driven by major events, and will react accordingly when major election news appears. In contrast, the fluctuation cycle of FIGHT is inconsistent with other Trump meme tokens. In addition, the market value of most other memes has decreased, and funds have shown a clear tendency to concentrate. It is expected that everyone will focus on trading in the above tokens in the future.
In contrast, there are not many Harris-related concept tokens. There is only one token that can be considered "large": the token is called KAMA, and its current market value is about 7 million US dollars. The trend has fluctuated and fallen in the past three months, from about 0.02 US dollars three months ago to 0.007 US dollars today. The overall scale and market value are far smaller than Trump-related tokens. It can be seen that the entire currency circle is not very enthusiastic about Harris-related concepts, or in other words, in the final stage of this election, the hot money for election speculation has all been invested in Trump-related concept coins, especially HARRIS and other tokens that once had some popularity have lost their glory.
Related Reading
With the election approaching, here are some Memecoins worth ambush
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