Trump leads in election data, but options market does not show extreme positions

The latest data from Ploymarket shows that Trump leads Harris by more than 10 points, with Trump at 55.9% and Harris at 43.4%. As implied volatility continues to be low, BTC traders need to establish corresponding positions to prepare for the bull market that may be brought about by Trump's victory.

However, data shows that although BTC options will expire on November 8, 2024, there is no extreme position in the market, indicating that traders remain cautious about the election results. It is not ruled out that although Trump's election is good for the crypto market, Trump's monetary policy may put pressure on the long-term trend of crypto assets.

MicroStrategy continues to be popular, and investors prefer complex investment strategies to lock in profits

Data shows that the BTC options market has a trading volume of between $42 billion and $71 billion this year, making it a leverage tool that is more popular among traders. In addition, although MicroStrategy's current share price is higher than the value of its BTC holdings, as mining revenue declines, holding MicroStrategy has become an alternative option for obtaining direct exposure to Bitcoin.

The Fed's November rate cut expectations have declined, and BTC prices are under significant pressure

The minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed that policymakers had different views on the extent of the recent rate cuts, with a few officials calling for a 25 bp cut and gaining support from some participants. After the release of the minutes, the market quickly lowered its expectations for a rate cut in November, and U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, while the crypto market fell. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 BP in November is 70.4%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates has risen to 29.6%.

BTC prices rebounded at the beginning of this year as the macro situation improved, but retreated as market structure and liquidity drivers weakened. Trump's victory may be a boon for BTC, but if the Fed adopts a tight monetary stance in response to the excessive stimulus of Trump's policies on the economy, the rise will encounter resistance. In the pre-election period, traders who want to make short-term profits may use call option arbitrage strategies to manage risks and capture upside gains.

Some of the above views come from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full report of Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.