市场热点重回ETH生态，距以太坊ETF获批究竟还有多远？
Original - Odaily
Author-husband how
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, what is surprising is not that the price of Bitcoin fell, but that Ethereum led the rise of altcoins and broke away from the trend of Bitcoin and entered an independent market. I thought it was a blood-sucking market for Bitcoin, but I didnt expect that it seemed to be a good thing, and funds turned to speculate on Ethereum.
Many people in the community joked that it was as if the Ethereum ETF had been approved. So how far away are we actually from an Ethereum ETF? What are the chances of getting approved? What key milestones should we expect?
Odaily has compiled the remarks made by some institutions and professionals for investors’ reference.
Background of the Ethereum ETF discussion: After the SEC successively postponed the Ethereum spot ETF applications of Grayscale, ARK, VanEck, Hashdex and other institutions in December 2023, the SEC also opened a comment period in the same month to weigh whether Ethereum and Bitcoin should be treated differently. Coin spot ETF.
The SEC needs to make approval decisions on multiple Ethereum spot ETF applications by the end of May, including VanEck, Ark 21 Shares, and the Hashdex Ethereum ETF. In addition, the SEC must make a decision on Grayscale’s application to convert the ETH trust into an ETF by June 18, Invesco’s application by July 5, and Fidelity’s application by August 3. A decision will be made on BlackRock’s application by August 7.
Based on the above background, the market generally holds positive and negative opinions on the approval of Ethereum.
Among them are the remarks that believe that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved:
Coinbase says cryptocurrencies are here to stay and a Bitcoin spot ETF will further expand cryptocurrency adoption. Application for an Ethereum spot ETF could be approved soon.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the SEC had “implicitly” accepted Ethereum as a commodity when it approved an Ethereum futures ETF last year, meaning it could see a spot Ethereum ETF listed this year. The SEC may have no reason to change the classification of Ethereum. If Ethereum is classified as a security, it would be contrary to the regulator CFTC.
Standard Chartered predicts the SEC will approve a spot Ethereum ETF in the second quarter of this year.
Steven McClurg, co-founder and chief investment officer of Valkyrie, believes that since the SEC has approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF is also possible in the future.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas previously said that after the SEC approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, he expected the Ethereum spot ETF to be approved in May with a 70% chance.
Digital asset lawyer Joe Carlasare believes that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved this year, but approval may take longer than people expect. At the same time, the US SEC is also working hard to carefully create a precedent that allows them to decide which digital assets are allowed. ETFs retain some discretion when entering the market.
BlackRock CEO Fink also said he saw the value of launching an Ethereum ETF.
The above are the remarks of institutions and relevant professionals on the approval of Ethereum spot ETF. It can be seen from this that the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF provides certain reference for the approval of Ethereum ETF. At the same time, the SEC’s definition of Ethereum is also One of the main reasons for approval.
Among them are those who believe that the Ethereum spot ETF will not be approved:
JPMorgan is not optimistic that the SEC will approve a spot Ethereum ETF in May. JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes the SEC needs to classify Ethereum as a commodity (similar to Bitcoin) rather than a security. At the same time, there is no more than a 50% chance that the SEC will classify Ethereum as a commodity by May.
Investment bank TD Cowen believes that the SEC is unlikely to approve a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the short term. Despite the recent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, the SEC will take a more cautious approach to approving a spot Ethereum ETF. The SEC may wait to gain experience with a Bitcoin ETF before considering approving an Ethereum or other cryptocurrency ETF.
Based on the comments of the two parties, the main reason that currently determines whether the SEC will approve the Ethereum spot ETF is how to define the nature of Ethereum. If it is defined as a commodity, the possibility of approval will be greatly increased, but if the SEC will Ethereum is considered a “security,” which may not be approved by the May deadline.
But looking at the previous cases between Ripple and the SEC, the court ruling in July 2023 declared that XRP itself is not a security and the federal judges decision in October of the same year to reject the SECs appeal request. At least under current legal framework, Ethereum will not be defined as a security.
Accordingly, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in May this year is crucial. It is obvious that the approval of the Ethereum ETF faces more uncertainty than the Bitcoin ETF.
