Does ETF hold the power of life and death? What is the attitude of the five major SEC committee members towards Crypto?
Original - Odaily
Author - Azuma
As the “final judgment day” of the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10 gradually approaches, speculation surrounding “approval” or “rejection” has become increasingly lively.
Yesterday evening, major ETF applicants except Hashdex have successively submitted updated versions of S-1 (S-3) documents. Next, the SEC will vote on this document and the 19 b-4 document submitted earlier. , to decide whether to approve the application for Bitcoin spot ETF.
According to FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett, the voters who can participate in the life and death resolution of ETFs are the five current members of the SEC (full name U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), including Chairman Gary Gensler, and four members Hester Peirce, Caroline Crenshaw, Mark Uyeda, Jaime Lizárraga.
What is the attitude of the above five people towards Crypto and Bitcoin spot ETF? What choice will you make in this crucial vote? Combining each persons past speech history, we tried to find some clues.
Voter 1: Chairman Gary Gensler
Public enemy of the industry, human black swan... As SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, who had the greatest influence in this vote, is perhaps the most hated regulator in the Crypto industry.
Gensler was also regarded as an industry ally for its academic research on Crypto in the early days. However, as it has led many lawsuits against companies and projects in the industry in recent years, Genslers attitude towards Crypto has shown a 180-degree change. change.
Reference reading materials: Forbes: Three phases detailing how Gary Gensler went from crypto ally to industry enemy?》、《SEC Chairman Gary Gensler was blasted by the media: a national disgrace, step down immediately》。
Yesterday evening, Gensler once again issued a risk warning about Crypto, emphasizing that individuals providing crypto asset investments/services may violate applicable laws, including federal securities laws; investors should understand when participating in crypto asset securities that they may lose their investment-related critical information and other important protection; in addition, investing in crypto-assets may also be associated with extremely high risks and often violent fluctuations; many major platforms and crypto-assets have experienced bankruptcy and/or devaluation; continuing to invest in crypto-assets requires recognition of significant risks.
All in all, based on his past remarks and actions, Gensler is more likely to side with the opposition in the vote... However, there are also voices that believe that since the SEC has been willing to spend a lot of energy in negotiating with ETF applicants in the past few months, Communication, Gensler in the chairmans position may make unexpected decisions.
Voter 2: Commissioner Hester Peirce
In contrast to Gensler, Commissioner Hester Peirce has always been the most friendly regulator to Crypto, and she has also been given a well-intentioned nickname by the industry - Crypto Mom.
Peirce has clearly opposed the substitution of litigation for regulation in the past and believes that the SEC should proactively consider establishing a Crypto regulatory framework.
As for his attitude toward ETFs, Peirce may be more radical than you think. He once said that spot Bitcoin ETFs should have been approved 5 years ago, and even bluntly said: “The logic of why the SEC did not approve spot Bitcoin ETFs has always puzzled me.
You can boldly expect Peirce to vote yes.
Voter 3: Caroline Crenshaw
Compared to Gensler and Peirce, Caroline Crenshaws work does not seem to be so focused on the Crypto industry, but judging from the few times she has spoken, Crenshaw also seems to have an opposing attitude towards Crypto.
In November 2021, Crenshaw issued an article emphasizing the regulatory issues of DeFi. He said that DeFi can bring certain benefits, but if a protective regulatory framework is not adopted, it will also bring dangers.
In January 2023, Crenshaw attended a Twitter Space event hosted by the U.S. Army with Gensler, where Crenshaw stated that Crypto is “known as a scam”… Those considering investing should “carefully and carefully consider” their investment in Percentage of digital assets.
A conservative guess is that Crenshaw is more likely to vote no.
Voter 4: Mark Uyeda
Like Peirce, Mark Uyeda is also friendly to Crypto, and the two have jointly opposed enforcement actions initiated by the SEC against industry projects.
In March 2023, after the SEC rejected VanEcks Bitcoin spot ETF, Uyeda also issued a joint statement of opposition with Peirce. The two said that the SECs review of ETP applicants had double standards behavior, resulting in the long-term failure of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Unable to get approval.
It is speculated that Uyeda will also vote in support with a high probability.
Voter 5: Jaime Lizárraga
Among the five committee members, Jaime Lizárraga seems to be the committee member farthest from the Crypto industry. Foreign media Cointelegraph mentioned in the news of Lizárraga’s appointment in 2022: “Lizárraga has basically never made any public statements about Cyrpto and blockchain.”
Since Lizárraga took office, we have not found that she has made a clear statement on Crypto.
Lizárraga’s voting leanings are temporarily unpredictable.
summary
To sum up, it can be seen that the current five SEC members have quite different attitudes towards Crypto. Considering that Peirce and Uyeda hold relatively clear supporting attitudes, the approval of the ETF is quite worth looking forward to.
However, it needs to be emphasized that the above content is only a glimpse of the attitudes of the five SEC members based on their historical remarks. It does not fully represent the comprehensive judgments of the members, and it cannot cover the potential attitude changes of each major member at the time level.
Finally, let’s post the speculation of Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Balchunas believes that since Gensler will spend a lot of energy and even take vacations to cooperate with the applicant to modify the information, he himself may also vote for support. Coupled with the two relatively certain votes (Peirce and Uyeda), the ETF will eventually be approved by 3 votes. Majority prevails.
What is the final result? Lets wait for the last two days and wait for fates answer.
