Original author: NANCY LUBALE

Original compilation: Deep Chao TechFlow

Increasing optimism about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, the upcoming BTC halving, and positive market sentiment suggest a crypto bull run will begin in 2023.

Although investors had little hope for a recovery in the crypto market at the start of 2023, what happened this year surprised most market participants, with the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and many other altcoins surging. High volatility in the crypto market appears to be increasing, with a bull run expected in 2024.

The global cryptocurrency market is worth $1.69 trillion, up 112% over the past 12 months. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increased by 154% and 93% respectively. This growth is even more significant among altcoins, such as Solana and Avalanche (AVAX), which are up 880% and 250% respectively during the same period.

Key factors driving cryptocurrency prices include the rising odds of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved, the successful upgrade of the Ethereum network in Shanghai, and the Bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Chances Increase

Discussions of a Bitcoin ETF continue to heat up in the United States.

According to Bloomberg’s ETF analysis, there is a 90% chance that a spot BTC ETF will be approved before January 10, the final legal deadline for the SEC to make a decision on some applications.

If approved, such an ETF could attract more institutional investors into the space and have a positive impact not only on BTC, but also on the prices of other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor (founder of MicroStrategy) said the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could be the biggest development on Wall Street in three decades.

All investor groups are accumulating Bitcoin

Bitcoin holders are showing confidence in BTC by increasing their holdings. On-chain data from Glassnode shows a reversal of trend, with long-term holders continuing to add to their positions as they remain optimistic about the prospects of a Bitcoin bull run.

Tracking the balances of long-term holders has been a powerful indicator of price tops and bottoms. In every market cycle, the accumulation of holders can clearly be seen until the local price peaks and holders start selling in large quantities to realize gains.

More importantly, Bitcoin whales holding at least 1000 BTCshow signs of accumulation, which is historically a sign that precedes a sharp rebound.

According to a report published by Glassnode on November 27, Bitcoin’s cumulative trend score currently stands at 1, indicating that overall, Bitcoin whales are buying Bitcoin.

Well-known Bitcoin whale, MicroStrategy, continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings after purchasing an additional 14,620 Bitcoins at an average price of $42,110 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 189 , 150 Bitcoin.

Glassnode data also shows that investors with lower capital also set Bitcoin accumulation records in 2023, constantly setting new all-time highs.

As in previous cycles, this continued accumulation is a potential indicator that the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its price peak.

Bitcoin halving and historical data highlight potential

Bitcoin price trends tend to exhibit cyclical patterns. Analysts have compared the current price trajectory to historical patterns, suggesting that conditions now may be similar to the potential bull cycles of 2013 and 2017.

Likewise, Bitcoins historical bull runs tend to follow four-year cycles, often driven by events such as the Bitcoin halving, which reduces the rate at which miners can create and earn new Bitcoin.

The next halving event will occur in the spring of 2024, and past data indicates that the bull market may begin a few months before the halving event and continue until the Bitcoin price reaches a new all-time high.

In fact, with the halving event less than six months away, predictions are growing that BTC prices will reach six figures.

Crypto market sentiment continues to rise

Social media circles have been witnessing a resurgence of positivity in recent times. The Crypto Fear Greed Index, a barometer of investor sentiment, currently has a score of 73, indicating a prevailing state of greed in the market.

Notably, the index has remained above 50 for most of 2023, indicating market participants are positive about the broader crypto market.

This pattern of market sentiment has been a harbinger of rising prices in the past and could be an indicator of an upcoming bull market. It could also be an indicator of an upcoming bull market. Interestingly, the last time market sentiment reached this level of greed was in November 2021, when Bitcoin reached an ATH high of $69,000.

Technical indicators also reflect traders’ bullish sentiment

On October 23, the total market value of cryptocurrency exceeded the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) and reached $1.1 trillion. As of the time of writing this article, the total market value has reached $1.632 trillion. Buyers may have targeted the April 2022 peak range of $2.168 trillion. Technical traders look for these key indicators before anticipating a reversal.

The relative strength indicator (RSI) for global cryptocurrency market capitalization has entered overbought territory, approaching the 80-point resistance level, reinforcing the dominance of bulls in the market. The EMA has also formed a bullish crossover on the weekly chart.

Furthermore, if buyers establish support above the $1.75 trillion mark on positive volumes, the three-month-long uptrend could extend into 2024.