Bitcoin breaks through $30,000, how long can the market last?

Original - Odaily

Author-husband how

Editor - Qin Xiaofeng

OKX Ouyi market shows that the price of Bitcoin briefly exceeded US$30,000 tonight, with a 24-hour increase of 3.33%, and is currently reported at US$29,576.

This is Bitcoin testing the $30,000 resistance line again after falling back above $30,000 on October 16 due to fake news. Interestingly, both trials were strongly correlated with the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Market Review: Bitcoin leads gains, ETH underperforms

Due to market expectations for Bitcoin spot ETFs and the slowdown in the Federal Reserves interest rate hike policy, Bitcoin experienced a sharp rise this week, rising from a maximum of $27,137 to $30,206, with a maximum increase of 11.3%.

Unlike Bitcoin’s strong performance, altcoins appear to be relatively sluggish. In the past 24 hours, ETH has increased by only 3.4%, with a tentative price of $1,607. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has continued to decline, falling as low as 0.05388. It is currently tentatively quoted at 0.05433, a new low in the past 16 months.

Among the top ten tokens by market capitalization today, only Solana (11%) and XRP (7.6%) have increased more than BTC; among the top 50 tokens by market capitalization are BSV (24.9%), STX (14.6%) and BCH (5%). The performance is good, and the other coins have not increased as much as BTC.

Affected by the upward trend of the overall market, the current total crypto market value has exceeded US$1,158.9 billion, up 3.3% in 24 hours; crypto users trading enthusiasm has increased significantly. Todays Panic and Greed Index is 53 (last weeks average was 45), and the degree of greed has increased compared with last week. Level changes from Neutral to Greedy.

In terms of derivatives trading,According to CoinglassAccording to the data, in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $111 million, of which BTC liquidated $51.32 million and ETH liquidated $15.37 million. A total of 35,588 people became victims of liquidation.

also,Grayscale productsThe discount is still not ideal, and the discount rate of GBTCs net asset value is currently -13.12%. However, the discount of GBTC has been narrowing recently, and the current discount level has reached a new low in the past two years, indicating that the market’s confidence in Grayscale GBTC’s conversion to a spot ETF continues to rise.

The remaining Grayscale mainstream currency trust discount rates are as follows: ETH (-46.84%), ETC (-45.15%), LTC (-10.69%), BCH (-9.05%) and ZEC (-21.76%); there are eight positive Premium products are FIL (+ 522.90%), SOL (+ 264.58%), LINK (+ 175.62%), ZEN (+ 20.00%), BAT (+ 19.50%), MANA (+ 86.05%), XLM ( +124.19%) and LPT (+7.84%).

Crypto-related listed companies have also been affected by the rising market, with stock prices generally rising by more than 10% in the past week. Among them, the share price of the US-compliant encryption platform Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) rose 4.53% today and was temporarily reported at US$76.33; the share price of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest Bitcoin holding listed company, rose 5.1% today and was temporarily reported at US$359.80.

Reason: Anticipated digestion of Bitcoin spot ETF approval

The current market rise is mainly stimulated by the expectation of approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Even the postponement of 6 spot ETFs scheduled for resolution this week did not dampen the markets enthusiasm. Many well-known project parties and institutions have expressed optimism about the future approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Paul Grewal, chief legal officer of Coinbase, said in an interview that Coinbase is confident in the U.S. SEC’s approval of a Bitcoin ETF. The SEC may soon approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, highlighting its failure in court to stop Grayscale from converting its GBTC into an ETF.

JPMorgan analysts said they expect the SEC to likely approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications “within months” because the SEC has not appealed Grayscale’s recent lawsuit ruling. The spot Bitcoin ETF is most likely to be approved before January 10, 2024, the final deadline for applications from Ark Invest and 21 Shares.

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in an interview with CNBC that she believes the probability of the U.S. SEC approving a Bitcoin spot ETF is increasing. The fact that the SEC chose to raise questions this time rather than reject filings suggests it is willing to move forward with the matter. Wood highlighted the crypto community’s growing optimism about Bitcoin ETFs.

Wood predicted that multiple Bitcoin ETFs could be approved by late 2023 or early 2024, adding that the SEC would need to make a decision on ARK’s application by January 10, 2024. Wood predicts that Ark Invest is expected to be among the first to be approved, and that “multiple [company’s] Bitcoin ETFs may be approved at the same time.”

Google Trends data shows that the global 5-year search value for the phrase “spot bitcoin ETF” is expected to reach a high of 100 this week.

Future: Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to be officially approved by the end of the year

Bitcoin breaks through the $30,000 mark, does it open the door to a new bull market? Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, there are several positive factors.

One is the halving market. Miner block rewards are halved every time the Bitcoin blockchain generates 210,000 blocks; this halving occurs approximately every four years and slows down the issuance of Bitcoin. The next Bitcoin halving will occur on May 9, 2024.

The many halvings in history are closely related to the bull market cycle of the entire crypto market. According to past statistics, Bitcoin will peak around 368-550 days after the halving, and then bottom out 779-914 days after the halving;

The second is the expectation of approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. On October 19, both Grayscale and BlackRock updated their relevant documents on the Bitcoin spot ETF. also. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler also expressed a relatively neutral answer to the Bitcoin spot ETF application without a clear rejection, sending a positive signal.

The advent of spot ETFs will also bring more incremental funds to the market and drive the price of Bitcoin up.

Singapore-based crypto financial services firm Matrixport said in a report that if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF receives approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the price of Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000. In addition, through an analysis of 15,000 U.S.-registered investment advisors, Matrixport estimates that approximately $12 billion to $24 billion worth of funds may flow into such ETFs.

Feedback from market conditions suggests that the recent rise in Bitcoin may be pre-digesting expectations for the adoption of ETFs.Odaily would like to remind everyone that investment is risky and should be treated with caution.