Interpretation of ETH pledge data: The growth rate of pledge quantity has slowed down, and the queues for deposits and withdrawals have become shorter.
Original text from XTom Wan, compiled by Odaily.
Since the Shanghai upgrade, ETH staking has continued to cool down. Currently, ETH staking has entered a relatively stable state. From the perspective of on-chain data from multiple perspectives, how should we interpret the current situation of ETH staking?
The churn limit per Epoch has been increased to 13
The number of validators on Ethereum reached 854,000 on October 10. As a result, the activation limit and exit limit per Epoch increased from 12 to 13, which means that approximately 2,925 validators can exit or withdraw money every day.
This means that the Ethereum network can receive 93,600 new ETH deposits per day without requiring new validators to queue for more than 1 day.
Activation queue is almost empty
New deposits must also go through the activation queue. However, unlike on June 9, when validators had to wait approximately 47 days to activate, validators who deposit now only need to wait less than 1 day to activate.
ETH staking downtrend may reverse in October
The amount of ETH staking is indeed slowing down every month.
New monthly deposits fell 67% compared to September. As the Shanghai upgrade was the largest de-risking exercise for ETH stakers, current monthly deposit levels remain higher than previous levels.
In October, we are expected to see a reversal of the downward trend. We have seen 644,000 ETH staked in October, accounting for 52% of the amount pledged in September. The key factors driving this phenomenon are Lido and Figment, which have deposited 132,000 ETH and 58,000 ETH.
Figment is now the third largest ETH staking entity
Especially since the Shanghai upgrade, the inflow of ETH pledged funds has been particularly considerable. Last month, they staked 230,000 ETH, just 40,000 ETH behind leading Lido. They are now the third largest tokenized entity in terms of total ETH staked. Given Figment’s focus on institutional staking services, this could mean established entities start looking into ETH staking. A deeper analysis is needed here and remains speculation until confirmed.
The outlook for ETH staking
Currently, the 30-day average of the daily ETH pledged amount is approximately 46,000-56,000 ETH, which is significantly lower than the daily activation limit of 93,600 ETH.
Therefore, we expect that until EIP-7514 is implemented and there is no sudden surge in deposits, the activation queue will remain between 1-2 days at most.
