Original title: "Bitcoin has risen for 14 days in a row, setting a record for the second longest streak in history. Is this a bull market trap?" "
Original source: Mary Liu, BitpushNews
Bitcoin’s gains have subsided over the past 24 hours, trading below $21,500 with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%. Bitcoin's current rally is the result of general optimism as US inflation cools, the possibility of a slowdown in the Fed's rate hikes blows away the specter of a bear market in 2022, and for now, Bitcoin has outpaced the FTX crash Previous levels also fueled optimism in the sector that more institutional-led investors could enter.
According to data released by Documenting Bitcoin on January 17, Bitcoin has risen for 14 consecutive days, surpassing the 10-day consecutive rise in July 2020 and September 2017, and is only one day away from setting a new historic record. The record for consecutive gains was 15 days in November 2013.
Is it a "bull market trap"?
The focus of the market now is whether Bitcoin can continue to break out and then return to the highs of 2021.
PlanB, a quantitative analyst with 180 W+ Twitter fans, said that the recent Bitcoin rally is not a "bull trap" that many investors hate. According to him, several benchmark indicators suggest that what many believe to be a bull trap is actually the start of a new bull cycle. A rise in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, although the RSI remains at all-time lows from 2015 and 2019.
PlanB analyzed that Bitcoin has found the bottom of the current bear market cycle, doubling his previous estimate of $15,500 in November 2022. He predicts that the next halving event in 2024 will push the price of Bitcoin to $32,000. He said: “BTC has been correlated with the S&P (and other assets) from the beginning. The difference is that if the S&P goes up, BTC goes up a lot more. In the chart below, the S&P goes from about 1 ,000 jumped to 4,000, while BTC jumped from roughly 1 to 20,000. The historical price correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin suggests that BTC has more room to climb. BTC is catching up to the S&P implying a BTC price of $54,000)".
Bitcoin bulls are now firmly in control of the asset after weeks of battling bears, according to senior market analyst Jim Wycoff. “On the daily chart, bulls have the overall advantage, suggesting more upside in the near term,” Wycoff wrote.
Cryptocurrency trading expert and analyst Michal van de Poppe said that Bitcoin’s liquidity has surpassed recent highs.
TradingView’s technical analysis also shows bullish momentum for Bitcoin. The daily composite index is at 15, pointing to a "buy" sentiment, while the moving average indicator is at 13, indicating a "strong buy," and the oscillator is at 4, indicating a "sell."
recession fears
Fears of a looming recession could weigh on the crypto market. According to Bloomberg, many business leaders predict a sharp slowdown in global economic growth over the next 12 months, with 73% of 4,410 business leaders surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers in October and November last year predicting a sharp slowdown in the next 12 months. Global economic growth will decline in months. It was the worst figure since the consultancy began surveying in 2011. A separate survey of chief economists published by the forum found that two-thirds expect a global recession in 2023 as companies cut costs; 18% think such a downturn is "extremely likely".
Some macro analysts, such as Damped Spring Macro Research CEO Andy Constan, are skeptical that the Fed will be able to achieve a "soft landing" and avoid a recession. Constan recently advised investors to short stocks and bonds, including both risks, on the Forward Guidance podcast. The cryptocurrency of the asset.
Since the rebound in early January, many investors hoped to "pocket safe." According to a chart shared by Santiment, Bitcoin profit-taking rose to February 2021 levels, while Ethereum surged to October 2021 levels, the year the crypto bull market peaked when it sparked massive Profit-taking, which suggests investors are less convinced the rally will last, could have serious implications for the mini-bull market currently being experienced.
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