Looking back at the major events in the currency circle in 2022, what new narrative will there be in 2023?

In the past 2022, major events in the currency circle occurred frequently, and the market entered a deep bear stage. When will it be the bottom, and when will it enter the bull market? OKLink also launched the annual address report on the chain in conjunction with the major events in 2022, and invited senior industry leaders to hold a theme"Looking back at the major events in the currency circle in 2022, what new narrative will there be in 2023?"Twitter Space. The following is a review of the text version of Twitter Space (for the convenience of reading, it has been cut):

·Guests and self-introduction:

Chain Research Institute: data sent traders

Chain Research Institute: data sent traders

Rainy days and coins: Omnivorous players in the currency circle prefer DeFi mining

Jennifer：OKLink PM

secondary title

1. What are the major events in the currency circle in 2022 that everyone is impressed by?

Phyrex: I am most impressed by the Fed’s interest rate hike, because whether it is the Luna crash, the FTX thunderstorm incident, etc., the biggest reason is the Fed’s rate hike. The Fed’s rate hike has changed the entire ecological pattern. Everyone is expecting BTC to break through 100,000 US dollars, and ETH to break through 5,000 US dollars. In fact, the overall market performance is very good until December 2021, but the Fed’s announcement of raising interest rates will have an impact on the entire market and even the global economy, including until now. Affected by this, I think the Fed’s interest rate hike in 2022 will be the event that will have the greatest impact on the entire market, especially the currency circle and its correlation will be very high. The narrative of the currency circle itself is relatively low, and it relies more on the trend of traditional markets, but these will be affected by the interest rate hikes of major central banks and the Federal Reserve.

Chain Research Institute: My most direct feeling in 2022 is the macro change, because since this round of bull market, the currency circle and the US stock market are very close to the macro trend. Another feeling is the thunderstorm incident on the exchange. There have been three arrows capital thunderstorms and Luna thunderstorms one after another. I did not expect FTX to have a thunderstorm. At that time, I even chatted with the FTX exchange staff about this matter. They thought it was FUD, but they didn’t expect it to be a thunderstorm. So what I want to say is that whether you use a cold wallet or an exchange, the longer you stay in the currency circle, the risk will inevitably be avoided, so try to diversify your assets.

rainy days and coins: My biggest feeling this year is the Three Arrows Capital Thunderbolt, Luna Thunderbolt, and FTX Thunderbolt, because large projects are related and will affect each other. In fact, FTX has done a good job of compliance in the United States, and has grown very fast in the past two years, but the risk of FTX mining is also very high under the premise of high returns. There will be a chain reaction between projects. For example, we can see that after the FTX thunderstorm, many market makers are also affected and become very vulnerable, which also has a direct impact on altcoins. So I would like to suggest that everyone should control risks recently and play less altcoins.

Jennifersecondary title

2. We are currently in the crypto winter, do you guys think it is the bottom now? From which angles do you guys judge the bottom of the market?

Phyrexin conclusion

in conclusion: We can see that before the interest rate hike on February 1, the overall situation may not be particularly good. Therefore, from my personal point of view, the first half of 2023 may be more difficult. If there are expectations, we may expect a better development in the second half of 2023.

Chain Research Institute: In addition to what Mr. Ni mentioned, we also need to consider the issue that the U.S. stock market has not bottomed out. If the U.S. stock market does not bottom out, the encryption market may continue to fall. Referring to the decline in US stocks to convert, in fact, the price that BTC will probably fall to is around 12,000.

Another point is that at present, the market value of the entire encryption market is actually quite low. It is different from the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market is a trillion or several trillion market, but the currency circle is actually very small, it is only a few hundred billion . If calculated in this way, in fact, the currency circle only needs a very small amount of funds, and it can hold the bottom.

In addition, I will look at the law, the law of several rounds of cycles, at present, there are basically a few points that have been achieved. What I observe is a transaction volume. The trading volume has actually returned to the beginning of the previous year. Another point is that there were more than 3 months of sideways fluctuations, and this time it was also achieved. The third point is mining. More than 90% of the mining machines are at shutdown prices. These three indicators have reached the standard, but at present there is still one indicator that has not met the standard, that is, there is an obvious heavy volume in the market. At present, we still lack to see a very obvious heavy volume in the market, its entire trading volume, The whole buying has not changed very well, so it is not very good to judge the bottom at present.

Rainy Days and Coins:Right now I don't think it's the bottom yet. Although the Fed's interest rate hike has been slowing down, the liquidity in the market is relatively limited, and there will be a possibility of an economic recession.

In addition, there are still some mines in the currency circle itself, such as the mines of FTX before and the mines of DGC, which may have the risk of liquidation. If there is a grayscale thunderstorm, the moment may be a big black swan event. Of course, if there is no thunderstorm, I think the currency circle needs more time to look at the policies of the US stock market and some internal indicators of the currency circle. The three indicators I pay attention to are: mining shutdown price, Jiushen index, and the decline in the last cycle. Therefore, predicting 12,000-14,000 is a reasonable bottom price.

Jennifersecondary title

3. When is the bull market expected to start? Which angles should we pay attention to to judge that we have entered a bull market?

Phyrex: Coming back from the bull market, I will first look at stablecoins. Referring to the previous data, only when the market value of stablecoins (USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI) shows a rising state, even if we cannot say that it is a so-called bullish return, it must belong to an overall environment. in a relatively good range.

So at present, the market value of stablecoins is still in a state of decline, especially USDC, which represents US funds, has been falling, which represents the main force of transactions and USDT, which is dominated by Europeans. Although it is rising slightly, it is not enough to change USDC. the magnitude of the decline. In addition, BUSD is also in a state of decline.

Basically, we can see that the average weekly decline of the main stablecoins is about 300 million to 500 million U.S. dollars, and the rise may only be about 10 million or 8 million. Relatively speaking, it is mainly based on negative Circulation-based. Under such circumstances, it is difficult for us to say that the current market as a whole will have a good trend. So from my personal point of view, in addition to the macro, I have been looking at the stable currency aspect. Only when the stable currency is in a steady and rising state, is it likely to come out of the bottom of the bear market. As for whether we can go to the bull market, we have to look at the overall environment for external funds to enter the market.

Chain Research Institute: I judge that there are several aspects of the bull market. The first one is the halving of BTC. The halving of Bitcoin is actually more than a year away. first hope. But in terms of time, it is indeed more in line. If the U.S. stock market can decline next year and come out of recession, and the U.S. stock market may come out of a bottom and continue to rise, it is actually a relatively good signal.

In addition, in fact, there are several commonly used ones from the indicator data, which is an MA 120, and the Jiushen index crosses the fixed investment line upwards.

To sum up, one is to look at indicators, the other is to look at events, and the third is to look at whether the United States has come out of recession from a macro perspective.

rainy days and coins: I think the first thing to start a bull market must be the amount of funds. There's a new narrative in the second market that brings in some new traffic and demographics. These newcomers may bring new funds, which will produce a money-making effect, which is a new trend and will bring about a new outbreak. The third one still depends on the halving cycle. Fourth, the integration of some institutions outside the circle, because I think the sense of smell of institutions will be more sensitive than some retail investors and users outside the circle.

Jennifersecondary title

4. Which track are you more optimistic about in 2023?

Jennifer: In 2023, I am personally more optimistic about the public chain track, mainly the Layer 2 track, such as zkSync built on the ZK Rollup architecture, has always been a pioneer of zero-knowledge cryptography, and continues to develop on the road to expand Ethereum. Opened years ago, zKS 2.0 is already compatible with the EVM, which makes contract deployment easier and more conducive to the ecological development on the chain. OKLink browser now supports zkSync 2.0 browser, and everyone is welcome to use it.

rainy days and coins: First, I am optimistic about the development of the L2 layer. In 2022, the development of Ar and OP is very rapid. It is foreseeable that in the future, in 2023, L2-level projects will issue coins, and after the main network is launched, they will be the main competitors of L1-level;

The second promising track is NFTFi. Now the trading volume and core liquidity of NFTFi are mainly controlled by blue-chip NFT. We look forward to a better development of NFTFi in 2023;

The third is the halving consensus of LTC;

The fourth one I am more optimistic about is a derivative track. Because the thunderstorm event in 2022 will trigger the trust of centralized exchanges. So I think 2023 will be an opportunity for the development of the derivatives track.

Chain Research Institute: I am also more optimistic about the ZK Rollup track. Because most of the funds were concentrated in exchanges in the past, it should become more and more decentralized in the future, moving more and more towards on-chain, trustless products. But the data on the chain is transparent and there is no privacy at all, so the track of ZK Rollup is still worth looking forward to.

The second is the derivatives track, because there must be a place to undertake the outflow from the exchange, so I think the derivatives track is okay, but at present there are only two currencies. At present, there should be only two currencies, and there are more investment opportunities, mainly DYTX and GMX.

Phyrex: I feel different from the previous guests. I am more optimistic about the DeFi track in 2023. You may think that DeFi has passed. But from my personal point of view, maybe 2023 or even 2024 may be the best development of DeFi.

In the speeches of many Fed officials in 2022, we can see that many Fed officials are now paying attention to DeFi, and the Fed has been paying attention to the development of decentralized finance.

We know that 2022 has frequent hacking incidents and frequent theft of funds. But at this time, it is relatively difficult for users to seek supervision to help them recover their funds.

But if we have already done it with regulated industries, such as banks, SEC approval, or even the Federal Reserve, we are nothing more than a hard connection between stable currency and legal currency, which is also called hard acceptance. After getting through the hard acceptance, it is very likely that our funds can be profitable without risk. I think this is a better development for DeFi.

Twitter Space link: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1 ypKddPbVmpKW