NFT investment principles and market outlook of well-known collector Redlion

OGtown

特邀专栏作者

2022-11-17 08:00

This article is about 10441 words, reading the full article takes about 15 minutes

NFT is more dependent on a decentralized consensus, and the formation of this consensus takes a very long time.

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NFT is more dependent on a decentralized consensus, and the formation of this consensus takes a very long time.

Introduction of special guests

Redlioneye.eth：Chinese Cryptopunks community guests:

Punk5443\1968\6876

Art blocks Squiggle2506\2508\2515\2520\2898\660\8977\8875\8946

meebits\1427\16552\12721\10133\14613\4758\13910\15904\8310\12272\5649\16175\8387

Chinese Cryptopunks community guests:

mzm.eth (Punks giant whale):The founder of the Chinese Cryptopunks community, the founder of the noun Chinese ecological community; he has incubated and coached several Chinese NFT projects to the global community.

Noun_74（noun74）：The founder of the Chinese Cryptopunks community, the founder of the noun Chinese ecological community; he has incubated and coached several Chinese NFT projects to the global community.

Brother Token (punk1778):Founder of Kaito, ex-Citadel trader, NFT enthusiast

88punk（punk8306）：Xu Chen, Founder of MetaZ, the Metaverse think tank, former co-publisher of Coindesk China, China punksOG.

Punk9277：Founder of Kaito, ex-Citadel trader, NFT enthusiast

secondary titleNFT old fritters, also called Lazha, has served as an operator and consultant for multiple projects, and is a blue-chip holder who can be called by name

Moderator moonlight:Bilingual host of East American Chinese descent, outstanding builder of Binance live and HUOBI live, host of Ultiverse, the head channel of Binance Live, planning and participating in thousands of programs and activities

Moderator moonlight:

Moderator moonlight:We all know that punk belongs to the collectible track. How do you look at collectibles and the difference between short-term hot items on the market?

Redlioneye.eth：I personally do a lot of work on NFT investment education. Don’t feel that some very popular products have appeared on the market. If you don’t buy them, you will be very nervous. I don't think this kind of following sentiment is recommended. Personally, I think it needs to be viewed with a business spirit and entrepreneurial spirit. For example, there are personal interests and hobbies. There may be some Xiaobai who especially like music or art, so they can want to collect a product such as music NFT, and make a difference. Collections, like punk, also belong to collections. A product project is very different from a project that passes in a wave. I still want to continue to share with you through various educational opportunities.

88punk (punk8306) Chen Xu:I very much agree with Redlioeye.eth's opinion just now. For collectible items or collectors, one of the most important things is to follow their own collecting hobbies. Because for very large collectors, it is rare to see a collector's interest in history that can determine the value of a collection. Even if he is a king. In the past, there were many kings, many bishops, and many collectors at the level of emperors, but what they liked may not be handed down in the end, because it requires a very strong consensus, and this consensus is not centralized. What power can decide, not to mention that there may be such a collector's power to decide, so it relies more on the consensus that is essentially decentralized. The formation of this consensus takes a very long time.

From another point of view, although the items that can finally become a collection level come from the items in the popularity. But because of the realization of technologies such as NFT we discussed earlier, the transparency of market information has greatly increased. Although there are still many black boxes in the market, this kind of black box is very different from the past world. With the deepening of supervision, with the optimization of the market itself and the upgrading, updating and innovation of technology, these black boxes will eventually become very small.

So in fact, a large number of popular projects will always be in front of us. All collectors and collectors, no matter how powerful they are, whether they are giant whales or small casuals, can quickly learn about a project and decide their own preferences and interests. The direction of investment collection. In this case, I fully understand that the market will be a little different from the so-called form of the traditional market in the past, so I think there are healthy forms and unhealthy forms. The healthy form refers to when a market is so actively traded, We do have a good chance of missing out on some good projects. Especially in a bull market. Because at that time, even many projects with very good advantages, and projects with potential to become collectible projects in the future, it is possible to find a very frothy value all at once. Just like the punk we talked about today, in other words, after a few decades, punk will be able to break through its previous highs. I remember that it was ETH in the 140s or 150s, which was close to 3,000 US dollars. I think it will definitely be exceeded.

However, it may be a long time before we get back to such a price. And punk from the time we bought it, plus the total value of ETH at that time was less than 30,000 US dollars. It may only take two or three months to rise to the previous high point I just mentioned. And in such a time period, it is actually very easy to miss.

So I think there will be FOMO in the market, and this FOMO is healthy. What is an unhealthy FOMO emotion? Whether an investor indulges his emotions too much when chasing ups and downs, controls emotions and market emotions, instead of calmly judging the relationship between its value and price. This is the emotion of unhealthy FOMO. Therefore, the basic FOMO sentiment is completely understandable. Just because FOMO doesn’t sound good, you don’t think this market doesn’t need it. In fact, for collection-level NFT projects and hot-spot NFT projects, the entire market needs moderate FOMO, especially in the bull market, with such a high frequency of creation and so many new projects coming out, if we If we don't keep an eye on it, we may lose the first wave of opportunities at once. If we wait until the next wave of opportunities, first, it is difficult to judge when to start, and second, we have to wait for a very long time. So it is healthy for everyone to have a little FOMO here, but on the other hand, even in a bull market, don’t indulge your unhealthy FOMO, let alone if we are in the current market stage, in a bear market At that time, the creation of the market was not so much, and the project itself was not so strong. The price trend will be opposite, and it will provide more opportunities for everyone to enter the market, including the recent liquidation of some high-quality NFT projects due to market panic. Everyone has seen it, and it is happening today. At this time, no matter whether it is a suitable opportunity to start, everyone has enough time to consider and consider, and should not fall into another kind of panic. It’s about controlling your unhealthy FOMO emotions.

And the entire market needs to screen out collection-level items from the popularity. Going back to the original point, it definitely does not depend on a person's hobbies, nor does it depend on the very strong strength of a few giants, it depends on a very long-term In the process of time, many different collectors need to join the consensus family, just like punk.

Moderator moonlight:

Moderator moonlight:For NFT investment, how to choose the principle to keep the investment at least maintain its value?

Redlioneye.eth：When I bought NFT, I actually didn’t pay much attention to the return on investment. Just like when I bought punk, it was the same as buying other things in my daily life. I liked the design of punk very much and then I bought it. And punk was very cheap at that time, so I didn't think about the profit at all when I bought it. I just prefer to have an adventurous spirit, and I prefer to participate in some new affairs. I think everyone should maintain curiosity in the space, and encourage everyone to try something new.

For some investment suggestions, at least there must be some goals. To invest in NFT, you must at least understand what kind of sector it is, or whether the investment is liquid, and I think that in the current NFT sector, the income of different sectors is different. the same. So you have to plan well before investing.

And now there are various reasons for NFT to like to vote. Some people bought it for social networking, and some people simply like this community, so they bought it to support the community. My suggestion is that it is best for everyone to buy some NFTs that you like, and you have some NFTs with special meaning. Only by buying this kind of NFT that you like can you grasp it. If one day it takes off, you will be very happy. If you say that I am awesome, I took a fancy to it at the time, and now I am very happy when it takes off.

mzm.eth (Punks giant whale):Because I was born in the secondary market, in my logic system, in order to preserve value, at least play NFT or play in the field of encryption, we should not have such an expectation. In addition, value preservation is very difficult to achieve. In fact, there are many kinds of uncertain risks, including black swans. Therefore, when we make an investment, we should have an awareness before investing the money, whether the loss of the money is within my tolerance range, and if it is within our tolerance range, then we will consider it. Can bear this loss, or lose all this loss, we have to consider the worst outcome. Does it fall by 90%, or by 80%, or by 100% to zero. Under such circumstances, I can still accept it, and then I will consider that I should be willing to take such a big risk, what kind of target should I choose, and how much profit margin I should seek. Does this target meet, is it a target I need. It is a typical one.

In addition, we must also consider the logic of risk control. I have prepared such a big psychological burden, but how long is the time node? Going out in the middle is really the worst situation. Of course, the best situation is easy to solve, and there is only a problem of only winning. In the worst case, should we sell with a stop loss, or is there a mistake in our judgment logic? Or a wrong perception, so we stopped loss in principle at this time. Just like the Titanic is about to sink, do you need to jump off the ship to determine when the ship is about to sink? If you want to survive, logically, even if it is only one dollar left, we should get off the boat, and there is nothing to say in this case.

But in most cases, it is not sure whether this will be silent. It is just that you feel that it may sink. This will still challenge your psychological tolerance limit, but like an old Chinese saying in ancient times, it is called Weisi To win, think about losing first. When doing anything, don’t think about how much money I can earn. The first thing is to think about how much money I can lose. Before losing this money, whether this money will not affect my life, my mood will definitely affect it , Everyone doesn’t like losing money, but it doesn’t affect my life, it doesn’t affect all my other things, or at least in such a situation, you can become a long-term investor.

Regarding the target we chose, we just talked about the issue of risk control. The other one is about the so-called choice of value preservation, or as far as possible relatively speaking, it is relatively stable and profitable, defensive counterattack pass, just like football coach Mussolini's tactics, defensive counterattack, which kind of thing is definitely not If we invest in that kind of investment, we will definitely not be able to lose it. Assuming this logic, we are not pursuing the greatest interests. What we are pursuing is this project. We will definitely not be able to lose it, but once the market is favorable, we can earn some money. Money, or making a lot of money, in terms of such a choice target, we must first determine which target is not worth losing.

The first type is antiques. In the NFT field, it is similar to punk. Punk is an NFT ancestor and phenomenal product, and its historical positioning has never been replaced. In this case, as long as we firmly believe that the encryption market will continue to develop, we firmly believe that the NFT market will continue to develop, and we firmly believe that the decentralized metaverse will continue to develop, and punk will continue to exist forever. It is not transferred by other wills, not by the will of any project party, or by the will of the leading party, the transfer of the will of the main force will continue to circulate, only the difference between high and low prices. Everyone recognizes it more and more, or everyone does not recognize it. Some people always say that, just like Oracle, it always has its historical value and it is irreplaceable.

The other is artwork, whether it is shot by a famous artist, or whether it may become a famous artist in the future, whether there is such a work, the work itself, or we discard the artist, this artist is anonymous and unknown, but you alone With a discerning eye, do you think its pure artistic value, whether it is created by AI or created by human beings, we discard its art carrier form, whether it is NFT form or traditional offline form, it itself It is a beauty that is beautiful enough, at least beyond the concept. In this case, I believe that human aesthetics, as long as the economy develops, or the spiritual pursuit beyond food and clothing, will inevitably pursue such aesthetically valuable works of art. This means that you have to believe that as long as the human earth civilization is still developing, art will last forever, and its beauty will be beautiful after all. So it cannot be replaced, and no one can deny it. Under such circumstances, it is equivalent to saying that it cannot die, but only its price, which depends on another set of logic, which kind of things cannot die. Has it ever become an IP.

Except for antiques or works of art, other IPs, we don’t talk about games or application scenarios. Most of the other IPs basically want to go in the direction of IP. Just like Disney, it is actually a standard and very successful IP. In the NFT field, everyone wants to be Disney and become a phenomenal IP. But IP does not refer to the IP in this small circle. The entire global NFT market in our small circle is estimated to add up to hundreds of thousands of people, and it may not be a million people. In this process, these people play IP. Before this IP, in fact, among the so-called one million people, for example, most of them chose BAYC, or chose punk. For the attributes of value and uniqueness, if the IP attribute is tightly put into it, whether it is punk or BIYC, their IP is temporarily speaking, and there is no process of quantitative change leading to qualitative change at all. Its spread effect radius and its audience are still too small. If it is assumed that it is a thing that has grown up with this generation, like Disney in the United States, Gundam, Lego, or Haier Brothers in China, etc., such phenomenal IPs are spread across generations and cover The crowd may be 10 million, 20 million, or even hundreds of millions. It will be at least before the demise of human civilization, or in the relatively foreseeable future. What I just said is a bit too much. In the foreseeable future, it is a phenomenon-level IP that cannot disappear, and then it will really survive. This caused a qualitative change, in which case it was impossible to return to zero. Because after having IP traffic, it will naturally have various extended commercial values, no matter what you do.

As for games, such as metaverse games, or safari games, life has a game cycle, and I find it difficult to maintain value. You can only take advantage of it to buy low and sell high, sell it when the game is the hottest, and join in when the game is not as popular, or when the game is just about to become popular, and you can make a lot of money. Any game, at least since the invention of the game, has a life cycle, and the daily activity will drop immediately.

So mainly look at antiques, works of art and IP. As for the IP category, it can really be called an IP temporarily. Except for BAYC, which has already been out of the circle, I don’t think there is any one, and even punk’s IP is not considered an IP. But punk does not engage in IP, and IP is a subsidiary of punk. Monkey does not mean that it covers a particularly wide range of people, but that its opinion leaders out of the circle are influential enough to indirectly drive it, but this is still built on the beach, and it is still very likely due to an unexpected factor. Or the black swan, or because of its original BUG, suddenly disappeared. This thing has not formed a qualitative change. It can only be said that there is a path to complete the conversion of IP for the time being. In my opinion, the other IP blowers have not reached that level for the time being, but their vision is to go to IP. So from this point of view, if you want to choose an NFT that is relatively defensive and counterattack, there are only punk and some works that really make you feel excited, like, and have artistic value, no matter in any era. Of course, you have to understand art first. The problem is that most people don’t understand, so what do you buy? Like me, I don't understand art, and my aesthetic ability is not good. I look at it purely from the perspective of investment. I have no choice. I do short-term and so on, and I don't know how. Because my main energy is to be a trader in the secondary market, of course I am long-term. Under such circumstances, I have no choice but to choose punk, and my main market can only choose punk, because in my opinion, it at least meets this standard, and it cannot die. I firmly believe that the encryption market and metaverse will become more and more popular, so I invested a large part of my funds in punk. I took the order when punk was close to the highest position, but I didn't panic. First of all, it was within my risk tolerance range. Plus I firmly believe in its future.

Another point is that I configured meebits again, which is risky and does not form an IP. In my concept, no IP is formed. But I did an asset allocation, which is equivalent to investing in the NFT field. I made an asset allocation with investable and disposable funds. My big position is punk, my small position is meebits, and there are others. And when I chose this meebits at that time, I didn’t know whether it was right or wrong in the future. I just said that in my opinion, in this large-position NFT field, 60% of the positions will not return to zero, and the other 40% of the positions may return to zero. But assuming that conditions permit and the time and place are favorable, in my judgment at that time, MIPIS may have a higher profit return rate, and it is more risky, but the profit return rate is higher. Since I pay attention to asset allocation, my overall NFT position, because the ballast stone is on it, because it will not return to zero. Even after the meebits are reset to zero, as long as I stay with punk for long enough, the value punk brings to me will still bring me back. Thanks.

Redlioneye.eth：I very much agree with Zeming that the long-term value of punk is very good. In fact, in the NFT field, there are still various NFTs, depending on investment needs, some people like long-term, and some people like short-term. In the short term, you need to find something that is easier to sort out, easier to be on duty, and easier to do arbitrage.

In fact, I am still a relatively speculative person, and I am an opportunist. My highest payout is actually on Squiggle. When I invested in it, I felt that the gameplay was relatively innovative, and the squiggles community was very cool. I didn’t think about rewards, so I took it for a while, and I got rich without thinking about it. I felt very happy.

It was the same when I bought punk. I really like punk and thought punk was very handsome, so I bought it. Because I also bought it with a speculative mentality at the time. I was also poor at the time, but I didn’t expect that after a while, my belief would be verified. After a year or two, I might have spent a little money. Buy punk and take off. So I think everyone still needs to be imaginative.

Another point is that I wrote a very long article on Twitter to talk about artworks and some experience of NFT, including my experience of losing money and making money. Welcome everyone to read it After reading it, I wrote some of my own analysis in it, which I think is very good. You can follow my Twitter and leave a message for me. Thanks.

Temporary host Noun_74 (noun74):What stage of development do you think NFT is currently in? And what should be the future development trend?

Redlioneye.eth：First of all, I am very optimistic about the future market. I am a very optimistic optimist. I think the current decline is a reasonable callback. I think things are slowly getting better. Although the floor prices of many NFTs don’t look very good now, these are some early attempts. I think we are about to usher in a second spring of NFTs. Soon there will be some world-changing technologies on NFT, showing you all kinds of empowerment. To give an example, everyone bought junk coins in 2017. In fact, these junk coins are meaningless, and everyone bought them after they were issued through a contract. Not long after 2017, DIFI appeared, which is very powerful, and many people suddenly became rich. I think that NFT may soon have such a wave, which is a second spring.

The second example may be imagined in the future, using NFT to replace a house’s title certificate. If you want to rent it out, the lease period is also managed through a smart contract. The interest is also allocated to you through a smart contract. You can trade NFT To buy and sell the property rights of the house. Of course, this is a very idealistic assumption.

At the same time, I think that NFT, as an electronic ticket, as an electronic ticket in the music industry, sells tickets very well. It can provide a very healthy secondary market and help everyone avoid some black market hype. At the same time, this NFT can also be used as a nostalgia for some fans. You can make the album cover into an NFT, and then collect it as a work of art for fans and friends.

All in all, I think this matter will definitely get better. In the future, there may be a tenfold increase in 2028, so that everyone can prepare for the next big bull market. I think punk can stay.

Pumpkin (punk5626):Let me talk about my own opinion first. I think NFT is still in a relatively early stage of development. I also agree with Redlioeye.eth's point of view, and it is relatively bearish now. I'm actually more pessimistic, I'm not as optimistic as Redlioeye.eth. In fact, NFT is not yet a particularly independent ecology, and it may expand more to Ethereum. The empowerment they talked about in previous projects, or whatever, has not been realized yet. It looks more like a pie.

Moreover, the rise and fall of NFT is actually more affected by the currency circle, and it is not a particularly independent thing. But I am still relatively pessimistic about the future development. But for the future, there may be several routes. First of all, I think that in the future, NFT will integrate more elements of WEB2, and may expand some fashion brands, co-brand with major fashion brands, and combine WEB2 and WEB3, such as the previous paragraph The time auction drawing board, including the necklace of ambush (sound) that you got a few days ago, your NFT character can also wear the necklace, and you can also wear the necklace yourself, giving you a sense of belonging.

Or the application in the Metaverse in the future, there are some new ways of expressing art. For example, many painters can sell their paintings through NFT, so that their works can be permanently kept on the chain. For example, if you draw a watercolor painting, Today, if the wind blows it away accidentally, it will disappear, and there will be no such situation. It is more of such a relatively physical application.

Brother Token (punk1778):What stage do we say NFT is in now? I agree with Redlioeye.eth, which is much more positive than the negative views of pumpkins. I think the current NFT era has just begun. We need to see what stage it belongs to, and we should learn from history before we can know the replacement.

In the past few rounds of big bull markets, the big bull market from the end of 2013 to 2014 was digital currency, and the big bull market from the end of 2017 to 2018 was smart contracts. Smart contracts led by Ethereum led to a frenzy of supply and ICO. The 21-year bull market was jointly promoted by DIFI and NFT. You can look at the trend chart of Bitcoin, which is two double peaks.

So overall, I think NFT and DIFI are different, and difi is a field that can be classified as FT. So overall, it can be divided into two major eras. The first era is the era of FT, which is the era of homogeneous tokens. I think the heyday of this era is basically over. From digital currency to From the digital currency led by Bitcoin to the smart contract platform led by Ethereum. The era of homogeneous tokens, I think the heyday has passed, and the future will be the era of NFT, so a new era of homogeneous tokens.

We look at the era of FT in the past, first of all, Bitcoin, it just changed, it just subverted finance, it just subverted a sector of assets. The asset used as a trading medium in the asset plays the role of an asset. And Ethereum is a platform on which countless possibilities of homogenized assets can be born. So Bitcoin has made a great innovation, and Ethereum has gone one step further in this innovation. Unlimited types of homogeneous tokens can be issued on Ethereum. So Ethereum has opened a new era, the era of FT. DIFI is a token of Ethereum, adding liquidity to it.

Since last year's NFT, we have truly entered a new era of non-homogeneous tokens. In the future metaverse, we will inevitably enter a metaverse era, and homogeneous tokens are just a kind of circulation The medium is to truly construct all things in the virtual world in the future metaverse, including land and metamorphosis, as well as cars in props, and various things must be constructed with NFT. Therefore, NFT will become the cornerstone of the future metaverse, and will build everything in the future metaverse, and FT will build the financial system in it.

Generally speaking, NFT is just at the beginning stage now. In the era of NFT, it is also very similar to the development of FT. It is also the first birth of PFP, which is similar to Bitcoin. It is also the first rigid demand, like Bitcoin. Coins are used as electronic currency for payment. Of course, it is such a thing to do assets now. Ethereum has been expanded, and now NFT is the same. First of all, my PFP, this avatar, is a metamorphosis in the metaverse world, which is a rigid need. This is similar to Bitcoin, and I think half of its mission is completed. With the rise of the previous round, it has proved that it is a large application scenario that is just needed, and there will be more in the future, but the growth will not be too large. I think the next, or next round of bull market in the future will really be scalable NFT. That is to say, there are two kinds of NFTs. One is to look at it, and the other is to use it, not as a club membership certificate, but to actually use this NFT to build the metaverse in the future. I am very optimistic about this paradigm in the future. In the future, NFT must be used as a basic module given to it by Yuanyu in a computer program. It is also used to build the future digital world, and this piece will exert greater power.

So I think that in the future, NFT is not just for viewing, but is used to build the metaverse. So from this point of view, NFT is now in a very early stage. Take punk as an example in the future. When punk reaches 500 Ether or 1,000 Ether in the future, looking back, the current fluctuation of punk can be ignored.

We look at the value logic of punk is very simple, we look at how big the entire global collectibles market is? The trillion-dollar market is very large. How much will be transferred to the digital world in the future and become digital collectibles? And in the digital collectibles, what proportion does punk account for? From this point of view, punk is now trying to compare with the field of collectibles, which is very, very small, so I think there is a lot of room for development of NFT in the future. Thanks.

Temporary host Noun_74 (noun74):Redlioeye.eth has a media that does a very good job. It often has some in-depth reports and some articles. Redlioeye.eth has also made a punk-related paper-like magazine or story introduction book. I would like to ask Redlioeye.eth to introduce these two projects.

Redlioneye.eth：First of all, I have created such a small magazine myself. This magazine updates one page a week, and each page contains weekly historical news reports, and the style will be different every week. These covers are also only available for purchase that week, and if you own the NFT of my magazine, you can get them for free. And this news is very neutral and unbiased news. This week's story is about the well-known story of CZ vs. SBF. If you are interested, you can go to my official website to have a look. My magazine will publish a complete edition at the end of each year, and this complete edition will contain 52 covers for this year, a bit like the previous perpetual calendar.

"OGtown" is an article column authorized by the Chinese cryptopunks community. The community was established in 2021. It is the earliest private NFT community with the highest asset holdings in China. All holders must verify PUNK to join. At present, there are more than 200 cryptopunk holders in the community, and it is the Chinese community with the most concentrated web3 celebrities. Exchanges, established blockchain media, Chinese opinion leaders, whale nft collectors, etc. The community has good connections with top overseas OGs, and friends from all walks of life are welcome to establish contact with PunksCN to jointly promote the development and progress of the Chinese NFT field