Base on the circulating supply as well as reduction of output, the following article focus on the situation after disapperance of FIL6 and looks forward to the future of Filecoin.

On April 18, the cryptocurrency market experienced another relatively large decline. Among them, FIL experienced a relatively large increase, from $30 at the beginning of the month to $120, an increase of more than 4 times. In the Filecoin economic ecology, the relationship between supply and demand is still one of the important factors that dominate the price trend of the FIL market. This article looks forward to the situation after the disappearance of FIL6 through the estimation of FIL liquidity chips, and looks forward to the future development needs of Filecoin.

In some relatively simple mining coin models, the supply and circulation are basically similar, such as Bitcoin; but in the economic model design of Filecoin, there are not only pre-stakes, gas fee burning, but also post-release of batches. There will be a big difference between pledge, circulation and supply, and there will be a big calculation barrier for the current tradable circulation of Filecoin. This article strives to restore the real current liquidity situation of Filecoin, and deduces the future liquidity situation.

After the mainnet went live, Filecoin Protocol Labs has updated several versions of the economic model, which has a relatively large impact on the circulation of the entire network, including:

• 25% of the FIL mining machine output will be released immediately, and the other 75% will be released in 180 days;

• The effective computing power is launched. Miners can obtain 10 times the effective computing power by encapsulating the effective computing power. The initial mortgage also needs ten times. The growth of computing power is accelerated, and the amount of pledges is increasing.

• The FIP-14 proposal is passed, and the non-renewable computing power can be renewed, and it will not be released in advance to cause uncertainty in the FIL market

• The last day of FIL6 is April 14th. After April 15th, FIL6 will disappear, and the supply of FIL will decrease by 283,000 pieces per day.

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SAFT Investor Section

The release part of SAFT investors has been written on the FIlecoin chain, and there is basically no change in this part, which can be clearly counted.

According to the early investor agreement, investors can choose different release periods to obtain different discounts. After the completion of the ICO, the ratio of investors choosing different release periods is roughly as follows:

• The yellow part is the amount released by investors for three years and above, the blue part is the amount released by investors for 6 months, the orange part is the amount released for 1 year, and the gray part is the amount released for 2 years

Early investors account for approximately 7.5% of the total supply. According to the above ratio, it can be calculated that the total amount of SAFT investor tokens released in each cycle and the daily release amount:

The first 6 months (current stage) release about 10.1 million per month, after 6 months until the end of the first year, the monthly release is reduced to 4.6 million, the second year is 2.7 million per month, and the third year is released every month 2.4 million.

It can be seen that although the amount of three years and above accounts for a huge proportion, the release period is long. Relatively speaking, the release of early investors in the first 6 months will have a greater impact on the entire supply and circulation.

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Release of the Filecoin Team and Foundation

In addition, Filecoin accounts for another relatively large part, which is the protocol laboratory, team and contributors, and the foundation, which account for 10.5%; 4.5% and 5% of the total supply respectively.

The sum is 20%. This part is released linearly for 6 years, so the theoretical release amount per month is: 5.55 million.

That is to say, within 6 months after the launch of the mainnet, the release of SAFT investors accounted for a relatively large proportion, and then, the protocol lab team, main contributors and foundation accounted for the main release proportion.

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Mining reward release part

According to the original design, the total block reward pool is 70%, which is 1.4 billion, of which 15% is currently reserved, which is 300 million; 55%, which is 1.1 billion, is used as storage mining rewards, and this 1.1 billion is divided into Two parts, what we know as simple release and baseline release.

We know that the simple release is carried out in the way of radioactive release halved in six years, which is only related to time and has nothing to do with the network status; while the baseline release is closely related to the network computing power status. In other words, the baseline release is uncertain, and has a lot to do with market sentiment, ecology, and input-output ratio.

But the baseline release has an upper limit. In the Filecoin algorithm, the maximum release is the release when the system meets the baseline requirements. Therefore, we have the following picture to indicate the minimum mining reward (only simple release) and maximum Release (also includes baseline release after baseline requirements are fully met).

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The daily pledge consumption of mining machines

At present, the computing power growth rate of the entire network is still in an accelerated stage, with an average daily growth rate of around 40P.

The mining cost per P is 18,000 pieces, which means that 720,000 pieces need to be packaged every day.

We roughly calculated that the amount of FIL flowing out of the mining machine is about 320,000 per day, which means that there is a gap of 400,000 FIL per day on the mining machine side.

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The current liquidity situation and trend chart of FIL

First of all, we need to understand a concept, the free circulation of FIL in the whole network (the number of FIL in real circulation), because of the mining model of FIL and the linear release of private placement, some coins cannot be circulated even though they are in the state of output, such as mining machines Post pledge of 75% of output;

So we use this logic to calculate and count the real total circulation value of the whole network:

It can be clearly seen that after April 15th, the slope has slowed down again. The reason is that the release of FIL6 has been completed, and the unlocking release speed of FIL other than mining release has dropped significantly. So far, it can be seen that the number of circulating FIL must be increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down.

In addition, we cooperated with the mining machine manufacturer to make a daily outflow of the mining machine:

The outflow of the mining machine means that the amount of FIL that can be sold in the mining machine can be seen. After March 26, the outflow of the mining machine began to decline. There are two main reasons for the high probability:

• The price of FIL began to climb, reaching the psychological price of some miners, and some miners began to sell the output stored in the mining machine

• The daily computing power of the FIL mining machine began to increase, the FIL that required pledge and gas burning began to increase, and the FIL in the mining machine wallet began to decrease

From this, we can take a closer look at how the price of FIL will affect the supply and demand of FIL, and how will the supply and demand of FIL feed back the price of FIL?

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FIL ecological outlook

The "overheating" brought about by Filecoin's price rise is more about its short-term benefit attributes. For the long-term development of the project, the growth and expansion of the ecology is the root and bottom logic of the project.

The emergence of every hot spot is accompanied by the process of "explosive models" and "heat dissipation", and the process of "heat dissipation" is the process of ecological "big waves washing sand" and the process of highlighting long-term value, so we still look at it from the perspective of long-term value Filecoin and the distributed storage market.

The most gratifying thing about the Filecoin ecology is that it has achieved "out of the circle", that is, out of the encrypted digital currency circle. Strictly speaking, Bitcoin has not yet entered the mainstream business world. Ethereum is close to simulating and reproducing a mainstream business world, but it has not yet completely "out of the circle". Filecoin has completely embraced the real business world. Now there are some Internet Cloud storage companies began to seek the grafting and cooperation of IPFS technology.

Before the Filecoin mainnet went live, the Filecoin official website was dedicated to the development of the Filecoin ecosystem. In activities such as HackFS, SPARK, APOLLO, and Filecoin Launchpad, he has successfully helped and incubated many high-quality Web 3.0 projects.

After the Filecoin mainnet went live, we saw a broader Filecoin ecosystem. Many projects have been born based on the Filecoin network, and the Filecoin network is penetrating into various fields at an extremely fast speed, and has been implemented in finance, finance, media, video, games and other fields.

For example, the well-known project livepeer can now use the video function in the web3 stack through the combination with Filecoin. In the Filecoin ecosystem, file.video-a Web3 application, which uses Livepeer for video ingestion and transcoding services, and uses Filecoin to guarantee video storage for VOD playback, are relatively mature applications.

In addition, in the Filecoin ecosystem, the Voodfy project can use Filecoin and Livepeer with IPFS to provide users with video storage solutions in a safe, practical and reliable way. It just satisfies the fact that both individuals and companies are generating a large amount of video content in the current society, and many users are looking for a simple video platform to help them deal with video infrastructure.

The future market prospect and ecology of Filecoin can be seen from the horizontal and vertical dimensions of Filecoin's ecology.

Now the Filecoin ecological landscape needs a lot of related service layouts. Filecoin is now the main mining machine manufacturer, mining machine upstream service industry, Filecoin asset management value-added, Filecoin lending, and Filecoin custody. The industry has gradually shifted from early technical barriers to capital barriers. Become a capital-intensive ecology.

From a vertical perspective, it is mainly the distributed cloud storage service architecture. The underlying technology of distributed cloud storage must be the IPFS network itself; the second layer is Filecoin, which is the IPFS incentive layer; the third layer is related to tools, which are some friendly customers end and storage technology services; the fourth layer is the distributed storage application itself, which may be combined with some traditional projects. Currently, distributed storage is generally used by some browsers or streaming media, and their storage requirements are relatively large. Large, it will support the field of distributed storage.

At present, the official has also worked with many institutions to continuously enrich the projects of the Filecoin ecosystem:

• Filecoin Launchpad, jointly launched by Protocol Labs and Tachyon, guides developers or start-ups interested in IPFS and Filecoin to build more open, interoperable and programmable tools, infrastructure and applications for the distributed Web. Not only provide financial assistance but also one-on-one programming tutoring.

• Filecoin also officially launches the SlingShot competition, which focuses on incentivizing miners and communities to provide real and valuable data applications on the Filecoin network. Let the Filecoin network highlight the significance of gathering data value. Now there are many real data such as cloud disks, videos, music, medical imaging cloud systems, etc. stored in the Filecoin network.

• Filecoin and Longhash Ventures cooperated to launch the Filecoin ecological project accelerator Filecoin Frontier, which is based on Filecoin-based end-user program development, infrastructure, development tools, NFT, DeFi and open financial projects. There are currently 11 incubation projects.

• Protocol Labs cooperates with Huobi to provide $10 million in Filecoin funding to support the Filecoin ecosystem; Protocol Labs and Fenbushi Capital announce a $20 million ecological fund to support service and application development; OKEx’s newly established Block Dream Fund Cooperate with Filecoin Network to provide $10 million in special funds and resources for Filecoin to support high-quality ecological projects.

It can be seen that the Filecoin ecology is rich in funds, rich in ecological partners, and involves a wide range of data, finance, miners, data infrastructure, and NFT.

In the post-Filecoin era, when storage + computing is perfectly realized, Filecoin will become a bridge between the blockchain world and traditional business society through "storage". The birth of Filecoin is changing the future market layout of data storage and leading the way for distributed storage. Standardization innovation.