Shen Wanyuan: The best time has come for the Federal Reserve's dove assistant to adjust the market in shocks

沈万源

特邀专栏作者

2021-03-21 14:27

This article is about 1994 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

The Federal Reserve's dove assistant market shocks and adjustments, the best time has come.

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The Federal Reserve's dove assistant market shocks and adjustments, the best time has come.

Market review and summary of recommendations:

On the weekend, the market as a whole is still in the strategy we gave on Friday, so there was no update strategy yesterday, so let’s look back at the previous market trend. First of all, the previous view of range fluctuations is actually obvious. Indeed, on the whole, Bitcoin fluctuates within the range of 55,000-60,000 given above, and Ethereum fluctuates within the range of 1750-1850. Overall, there is not much change

Interpretation of mainstream currency market:

The current market as a whole coincides with the analysis we gave earlier. The overall shock is within the range of 56,000-60,000, and the trend is obviously a shock market. The previous analysis is also very clear. There is no new good news. Before the news, it is basically a fantasy in the current market environment that the market as a whole wants to break through to a new high again, so I also give you the latest operation idea to focus on 63000, 56000, 58500, 60000 and so on There is obviously no problem at the point where the trading chips are relatively dense, so we can still enter the market with this idea for the time being, and I will remind everyone in time if there is any change.

Bitcoin operation suggestions:

1.56000-56500 enter the market with multiple orders, default stop loss, target 59000-59500

2,59500-60000 entry layout empty order, stop loss default, target 56500-56000

Ethereum operation suggestions:

1. 1735-1740 entry layout long orders, default stop loss, target 1840-1850

2,1850-1840 entry layout empty order, stop loss default, target 1750-1745

Suggestions for bitcoin cash operation:

1,520-525 entry layout long order, default stop loss, target 547-550

2,537-540 entry layout empty order, default stop loss, target 525-520

Suggestions for Litecoin operation:

1,204-202 entry layout empty order, default stop loss, target 194-916

2,194-196 entry layout with multiple orders, default stop loss, target 202-204

The Bitcoin bull market is expected to be extended as the Fed's dovish policy stimulates rapid gains

On March 18, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (hereinafter referred to as: the Federal Reserve), said at a press conference that the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain loose monetary policy to promote economic development affected by the coronavirus. And emphasized that interest rates will remain near zero until at least 2023.

Affected by the US government's US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan, the market expects hyperinflation in the global economy, which may force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in advance. It is worth noting that the current market expectations for inflation have soared to the highest level in 12 years. The Federal Reserve also expects the inflation rate to exceed 2% in 2021. Interest rates will be raised, and this press conference will also inject a dose of stabilizer for the market.

A dovish monetary policy stance creates favorable conditions for Bitcoin price to rise. Alan, the chief researcher of the Binance China Blockchain Research Institute, told the researcher of the China Times Financial Research Institute that if the interest rate hike comes earlier, a large amount of funds from traditional institutions and retail investors may divert part of the funds back to the bank to buy more stable fixed-term financial management There will be a certain degree of outflow of funds in the cryptocurrency market such as bitcoin and other products. On the contrary, the news that interest rates will not be raised within two years has created a good environment for the inflow of funds in the cryptocurrency market. Switching to Bitcoin and other assets due to depreciating fiat currency will bring benefits to the investment market in the past year.

Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties are amplified

Although the Federal Reserve stated that it does not expect to raise interest rates in the next two years, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, recently signaled to the market that the global economy may usher in a round of hyperinflation. A Biden administration's fiscal stimulus would boost consumer prices while threatening the post-crisis rally in bonds and stocks. Markets are not overreacting to inflation, and economic conditions and inflation will actually change faster than markets or the Fed expect.

Jiang Jinze, head of research and strategy at Onchain, wanted to be a researcher at the China Times Financial Research Institute, saying that the Federal Reserve raised its short-to-medium-term economic outlook in the early morning meeting on the 18th, and maintained a dovish monetary policy caliber, trying to appease the market, which once again stimulated the market's animal Spirit. If purchases of government bonds are reduced, yields could quickly spiral out of control as the largest long-term buyers leave the market, so according to speculation from various Fed officials, investors need not worry much about the Fed's easing policy exit, at least until the fall. Support for markets is sure to send shockwaves through the economy and financial markets.

Today, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized above $58,000. Bitcoin is currently recognized as a tool for hedging against inflation. The dovish monetary policy stance is expected to promote the rapid rise of Bitcoin prices again. Mizuho Securities survey estimates that nearly $40 billion of the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package will flow into bitcoin and bond markets.

In this regard, Alan emphasized that the US government has recently signed the hotly debated $1.9 trillion rescue bill, which also includes a $1,400 distribution plan for citizens. The U.S. government's continuous monetary easing "water release" policy has caused most retail investors to abandon holding depreciating fiat currencies and switch to assets such as Bitcoin, so it will bring benefits to the investment market in the past year. If there is a continuous flow of funds into Bitcoin, it will maintain and prolong the bull market of this round of the market and bring more user traffic; it will undoubtedly be beneficial to the price of Bitcoin.

It is worth noting that despite the sharp rise in U.S. debt in recent days, against the background of rising inflation risks, Jensen believes that the ability to use bonds for diversified investment has deteriorated significantly, and the ability to use bonds to obtain returns has obviously declined. And pro-worker employment policies and slowing globalization mean that technological progress is the only force holding back inflation. And fiscal and monetary policy makers may provide more financial support until the limit is reached.

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