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Behind the explosion of NFT: value or bubble?
加密笔记本
特邀专栏作者
2021-03-18 03:33
This article is about 2147 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes
The NFT market has its own value and has achieved long-term development. When the fiery momentum recedes, we still need to wait and see how NFT can still show its own value and charm after removing the bubble.

As the latest investment favorite in the encryption world, NFT has ushered in an unprecedented explosion in the past February. According to data from CryptoSlam, in the past month alone, top NFT platforms have sold nearly 500 million US dollars. assets. Digital artist Beeple, whose real name is Mike Winkelmann, sold a work for nearly $70 million last Thursday, breaking online sales records and becoming the third-most expensive living artist.

These jaw-dropping figures have attracted many crypto players to try to buy or sell NFT, hoping to get a share of the hot NFT market. At the same time as it is hot, some people think that the current bubble in the NFT market and the hype of drumming and spreading flowers are more serious.

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The number of transactions is lower than the same period in previous years, but the total transaction value has increased significantly

According to NonFungible statistics, since January this year, the total transaction size of the NFT market has reached about 236 million US dollars, which is about 3.8 times that of the whole year of 2020. In addition, the NFT application counted by NonFungible does not include the recent "Internet celebrity" application NBA Top Shot. If NBA Top Shot is added, the total transaction size of the NFT market this year may have reached about 500 million US dollars, which is equivalent to the past three years. more than 4 times.

From the perspective of total transaction volume, the estimated total number of transactions in the first quarter of this year is approximately 323,400, a decrease of approximately 48.93% from the same period last year. This value still does not include NBA Top Shot. If the sales of NBA Top Shot are considered, it is estimated that the total number of transactions in the first quarter of several years will be about 629,700, which is still lower than the level of the same period last year.

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The "ownership economy" developed by NFT

Let's look at whether NFT itself has value? As we all know, NFT is "non-homogeneous token", also known as non-fungible token, and its ownership is transferred on the chain (such as Ethereum). NFT uses blockchain's distributed database technology to create ownership certificates for any type of digital commodity. This also means that any instance of a creative idea can eventually be registered on the blockchain, and the original and unalterable historical records can also be queried.

There is indeed a common criticism in the market today, that is: since digital art and digital collectibles can be copied, they will not have much value. And NFT introduces a new possibility, that is, art works can also have real copyright and ownership when they are circulated online, so as to protect the rights and interests of both art creators and art collectors. With the development of NFT, perhaps people will slowly let go of their obsession with "physical possession".

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Gradually improve the NFT ecology

Since last year, some well-known artists, pop singers, and game platforms have gradually entered the NFT field. Until this year, the encrypted artist Beeple's painting "Every Day: The First 5,000 Days" was auctioned for 450 million yuan, and the Dapper Labs team behind CryptoKittens and the NBA The sales of the cooperative NBA Top Shot exceeded 236 million US dollars, making NFT popular again, attracting many encrypted players to collect some works with speculative value in the NFT market.

There are certain bubbles in this, but like other encrypted markets, the NFT market is also "reflexive". Just like cryptocurrencies and traditional art, as long as more people think that NFT assets may have value, the actual value that can be obtained in the market will generally become higher.

This "reflexivity" creates a positive feedback loop, as in the case of the bitcoin market, which began as a memecoin for buying pizza but has grown in popularity and is now the world's most popular currency. important reserve asset. Similarly, NFT looks more like an entertainment game or a cryptocurrency whale game at first, but as more and more content creators and funds participate in it, people outside the circle will see this value circulation situation Getting better, and over time, this feedback loop helps drive the inevitable uptick in market activity and a well-established ecosystem.

Recently, NFT trading platform Refinable has reached cooperation with Korean media and game company Tooniplay, electronic musician Aphex Twin released NFT on Foundation, American rapper Lil Pump launched NFT on Sweet, and DC Comics is preparing to enter the NFT market. This will promote the accelerated improvement of the NFT ecosystem.

In the long run, the long-term development of the NFT market also requires the improvement of its own functions, such as the reduction of transaction costs, the improvement of network throughput, and the enhancement of the interaction between ownership owners and NFT works to obtain a richer experience, and Adding more utility around the items they own etc. At present, there is still a long way to go for the maturity and perfection of the NFT market ecology.

In 2021, the cryptocurrency market will begin to enter a bull market, coupled with the awakening of the Internet and a collective investment movement, creating suitable conditions for the NFT market to enter a frenzy stage. The author believes that the NFT market has its own value and can achieve long-term development. When the fiery momentum recedes, we still need to wait and see how NFT can still show its own value and charm after the bubble is removed.

This article only represents the personal views of encrypted notebooks and does not constitute any investment opinions or suggestions.
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