The waterfall once again washed the currency market.

When BTC fell below $50,000, major trading platforms shut down again. Huobi cannot log in, the Gate page cannot be opened, and other trading platforms are also affected. According to Wu, the blockchain was caused by a fault in the Tokyo node of the Amazon cloud server.

Netizens once again complained about "unplugging the network cable". The spot orders placed before cannot be canceled. If you want to place an order at a low point, you can't enter the page. Lost, it is almost impossible to escape the fate of being liquidated. A total of 370,000 people were liquidated yesterday, with a total amount of 24.5 billion yuan.

However, there are exceptions. A group of friends said that his contract had reached the forced liquidation price, but it was not liquidated (it should be caused by the platform downtime), and then BTC bottomed out and rebounded, and he was close to returning to the original price.

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technical failure

The failure of BTC technical analysis has begun since last year. The little bee asked a question on Zhihu, and some currency friends complained that the technical indicators of BTC were invalid, saying that BTC was perfect and unreasonable.

healthy callback

The technical failure of BTC is actually not a bad thing. When new funds enter the market, it will cause BTC fluctuations to not follow the routine. The technical analysis has multiple callback points, but the buying of institutional investors makes the technical invalid.

One possibility of yesterday’s technical analysis is to continue BTC to reach $60,000. However, BTC’s growth rate is too fast and too large, and the power to continue buying is weak. Therefore, BTC’s decline is beyond technology and is reasonable.

In January this year, BTC has already rushed to 40,000 US dollars. However, it took only half a month for BTC to go from 20,000 to 30,000, and the average daily acceleration was about 2.29%. It took only one week from 30,000 to 40,000, and the average daily acceleration was An increase of about 4.2%. This kind of rise is so short, so the time for BTC above 40,000 US dollars is also very short, and it soon pulls back to around 32,000 US dollars, and instantly falls to around 28,000 US dollars.

Next, after half a month of consolidation, BTC took off again. After nearly a month, it rose from 32,000 US dollars to around 58,000 yuan. The average daily acceleration was about 2.14%. It's about the same time, not like when it was 30,000 to 40,000.

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Bullfrog

On the one hand, from the perspective of BTC rushing up to $40,000 and falling back to $32,000, and then rushing to $58,000 and falling back to around $53,000, it is too tortuous to say that this kind of market is a bull market.

On the other hand, jumping up and down now is really like a monkey market. However, its low point and high point are both upward, and it seems inappropriate to say that it is a monkey market.

There is a math problem like this, a frog fell into a well 10 meters deep, the frog jumped up 3 meters every day, and then slid down 2 meters, how many days can he jump up.

The answer to this math problem is not important anymore. The little bee feels that the current market is a bit like this frog. It suddenly jumped up, then rubbed up and down, then slid down a little, then stabilized on the * wall, and then jumped up again.

Although it also feels like jumping up and down, the overall trend is still upward.

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charge up

The little bee put forward the bullfrog market last year. In the first half of last year, between April and May, BTC once rose and then fell, and then rose again in July and then fell back.

This kind of leapfrog is more like preparing for the big bull at the end of the year, so after several rounds of leapfrogging before October 2020, BTC broke through the historical high at the end of the year and opened the first peak of the big bull market.

In the following 2021, BTC suffered setbacks and fell back after reaching US$40,000, but then fell back after rising again, and a new round of bullfrog market opened.

risk warning

risk warning

The last round of correction was after BTC rushed to 40,000 US dollars, and then pulled back to around 32,000 US dollars. The correction rate was about 20%. After the correction, it took half a month to sort out.

This time the callback was after BTC rushed to $58,000, and then pulled back to around $53,000. The correction rate is currently about 8.5%, so there may be room for further testing.

In addition, the trading frequency indicator of Little Bee shows:

The BTC transaction frequency has increased during the fall, but it is still not high, which means that the amount of orders received is not large, and BTC may continue to drop.

The point of view and strategy of the little bee is:

1. Little bees are not too worried about the spot part they hold. The USD 1.9 trillion water release plan has not yet been passed. Although there is a high probability that it will pass and it has already affected the expectations of the BTC market, the real release of water should continue to promote the rise of BTC. What's more, I can't guarantee that 1.9 trillion US dollars will be the last release...

2. As for contracts, Little Bee has given up playing contracts now, but her husband has started to play, and Little Bee will advise him to open positions cautiously. And set a stop loss to prevent the platform downtime last night from happening again.

3. Although the little bee is worried about continuing to drop, it will still maintain a relatively high position, at least above 80%, and will not let itself go short again.

4. Little Bee will never stud, and will keep a certain amount of USDT or other stable coins in the account, so that it can be bought in the next possible transaction, so as to spread its own average cost.