Little Bee was still saying last night that there was no callback signal for BTC. After yesterday’s data came out, Little Bee made statistics and felt that the callback signal began to appear.

In fact, it is not a slap in the face, because the little bee is still a callback judged by trading volume data.

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callback signal

• Small peak of BTC daily trading volume
  

As analyzed in the previous article of Little Bee, when there is a large amount of trading volume, no matter whether the price is rising or falling, it may be a signal of reversal. Because in the process of rising, the increase in trading volume means that more funds are needed to pull up, so the rising power will begin to weaken. On the contrary, in the process of falling, the trading volume increases, which means that more selling orders are needed for the decline, which also means that the decline force is weakened.

Other price indicators may not be useful, but trading volume should be the most honest reflection of the market, and it is relatively indicative.

BTC has risen crazily recently, so Little Bee will count the daily trading volume of BTC every day. Little Bee uses the trading volume/market cap of coinmarketcap. Because when the price rises, the transaction volume will naturally increase. Using the transaction volume/market value, the impact of price increases can be eliminated, and even the impact of BTC additional issuance can be eliminated to reflect changes in the number of BTC transactions.

Yesterday's statistics are the data as of the day before yesterday, and there has been no heavy volume yet. But this morning, the little bee statistics are as follows:

This is the data of the past 3 months or so. It is obvious that on the last day, that is, yesterday, there was a small peak in the transaction volume of BTC. This is the second high point in the number of BTC transactions in the past three months. The previous high point was a turning point for BTC from falling to rising.

Therefore, the trading volume here shows a callback signal.

• The mainstream currency round is over

The second signal of the pullback is that all mainstream currencies have rounded up. Little Bee bought BSV more than three times, but BSV has not performed well. In addition, Little Bee has 3 times more LINK, 3 times more XTZ and 3 times more DASH.

These mainstream currencies have all started to rise today, and they are not as crazy as imagined.

Next, many friends thought that the market of altcoins would start a wild dance of demons. However, as analyzed in the previous article of Little Bee, those who used to play copycats have switched to contracts. Because the short-term operation is good, the contract may not necessarily be liquidated. In the long run, the contracts are all relatively good coins, so it is worth playing. The long-term fate of the cottage is likely to fall, or even return to zero. What's more, since 2020, mainstream currencies have performed very well, so it is better to play contracts than to play copycats.

Therefore, I am afraid that there is no copycat market as imagined. Therefore, when the mainstream currency has already risen in rounds, I am afraid that there will be a callback if there is no dance of demons.

Sometimes the dealer will accidentally pull a coin, and then wait for the leeks to catch up, and then he will sell the leeks to cut the leeks. Leeks that run fast will make money, while those that run slowly will lose money, and some of them will be covered with quilts. When all the current-filled coins have been pulled for a circle, all the coins are being watched, and if the banker pulls again, the trapped person will be released. At this time, the dealer may cut a wave, and start the next round after washing the dishes.

So the little bee had a premonition to call back, and reminded the group of friends in the group.

After the little bee judged that there would be a wave of callbacks, he quickly cleared almost all the coins in his hand except BTC and BTC three times more. There is a bit of BNB that is the prize for the essay, and nest has already paid back its capital a little bit, and the rest is all profit, and there is a little bit of eos and tag for market making, these are too few to be ignored. All the remaining coins were sold.

In the meantime, Little Bee also chased LINK up by more than 3 times, but sold it soon. Because the previous LINK was 3 times more than that, Little Bee wanted to make money back after losing money, but in the end it also cleared the position at the price of losing money. Because the little bee thinks that a callback will happen.

Now, in Little Bee's account, there is almost nothing but BTC and BTC three times more. BTC was bought at around $0.5 in May for more than three times. BTC was bought in BCH at 312 and sold when BCH was halved.

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is the cow still there

The little bee will talk about the point of view first-the cow is still there.

The 4-year cycle of BTC, the real big bull will be in 2021. It is important to know that this 4-year cycle is not necessarily a superstition. Because BTC is halved, the cost of BTC mining, that is, the marginal cost is increasing. Over time, the average cost of BTC will increase. Although the cost cannot determine the price, in the price game between the buyer and the seller, the cost has a certain price support effect. After all, the mining cost is there, and the miners are not willing to sell at too low a price. Of course, it is hard to say in the short term, but in the medium and long term, rising costs are still conducive to price increases.

As for the bulls in 2020, it is the flood of legal currency that triggers institutional investors and other investors to join the currency market.

Moreover, the release of legal currency continues. Although the real economy will inevitably have capital inflows after the vaccine is popularized and the epidemic is under control, the inflow of funds may not necessarily come from the financial sector, and the legal currency released will flow into the real economy. And when the real economy restarts, the stock market should not fall back, it may rise, or it may be a structural change. Overall, the stock market should be stable at best and should not decline. Although the currency market is indeed no longer highly correlated with the stock market, the currency market should not decline.

Therefore, there should be a bull market in 2021, and there should also be callbacks, shocks, sideways, and slow bulls... It's hard to say whether there will be mad bulls.

what to do next

what to do next

First of all, in the short to medium term, it's really hard to say. Will BTC rebound after a callback tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or even this week? Or continue to fall? It should be difficult to make accurate and confident judgments.

The little bees don't know much about technical analysis, so they use their mathematical knowledge and historical data to analyze and analyze.

Three possibilities: start to fall, continue to rise after a callback, and oscillate or go sideways after a callback.

• start to fall?

First of all, look at the transaction volume. The little bee has compiled the data of the past year:

Look at the picture above:

Compared with the annual data, yesterday's BTC transaction volume is not high.

Look at the green circle in the above picture, this is around September 2, 2020. Now the drop is nothing, but it was a big drop at that time. BTC rushed to $12,000 and then fell directly back to $10,000. Compared with that time, the current transaction volume is indeed insignificant.

Therefore, the possibility of the next big drop, the little bee thinks it is not too big.

• Continue to rise?

So will BTC continue to rise? This is more difficult to say, after all, the bull market has no top, and under the crazy trend, the market has become extremely restless. Therefore, various theories have become less useful.

Little Bee will briefly talk about his own analysis and opinions:

The figures above show the stages of accelerated growth in 2017 and 2020, respectively.

In 2017, it rose from September 25 to December 18, a total of 84 days.

2020 is from September 7 to today, January 4, 2021, a total of 119 days.

The duration of this round of rise has exceeded the previous wave of mad bulls, so how likely is it to continue to rise?

And now we can all see the rising trend of BTC. It is in the process of increasing marginal speed. The final rising speed is close to positive infinity, and the last part of the curve is almost perpendicular to the horizontal axis. So how likely is it to continue to rise?

So the little bee thinks that the possibility of continuing to rise is not particularly great. Of course, it is also possible to rise some more, but the higher the price, the higher the risk.

• Shock sideways?

Since the possibility of falling and rising is not high, there is a possibility that it will fluctuate sideways. Little bees think that the probability of this trend is relatively higher.

After all, the cow also has to turn around and rest.

write at the end

write at the end

Next, there is a certain probability that it may consolidate for a few days, from a wide range of shocks to a sideways market.

Of course, there is a certain probability that it will continue to rise, and it would be better if it continues to rise. Xiaomi still hopes that BTC can continue to rise. After all, the little bee also chased up BTC at a high point, buying BTC more than three times.

It is also possible for BTC to continue to rise after consolidation. After all, the bull market has no top, and it is difficult for us to guess the top.

One of the characteristics of the currency market is that when most currency enthusiasts dare not chase the rise, they may continue to rise. On the contrary, when most retail investors are crazy, they tend to pull back. This is what happened today. It was still skyrocketing in the morning and plummeted in the afternoon.