Analysis of Bitcoin Market: Pull Back and Do Long, Seize Profit Opportunities
The overall market trend over the weekend was not unexpected. It basically maintained a volatile and callback trend for two days, and it was running around $16,000. But at the same time, we can also see the overall strength of BTC. No matter how much it falls back, it will also form a rebound trend on the same day , and left a long lower shadow line, and this week's market decline has been greatly reduced compared with last week, it seems that it is just a normal callback.
Going back to the market, today’s Bitcoin looks more like it was driven by the rise of LTC, and there is not much meaning of spontaneous rise. Once such a rise occurs later, when LTC stops rising or falls, if BTC cannot take up the rise, it will pull back The probability is very high.
The BCH fork was successful, but this time the BCH fork was not favored by investors, and the influence on the market was not that great. Compared with the 2018 fork into BCH and BSV, which caused the entire currency circle to plummet, This time it seems that only BCH itself is falling.
Looking back at the fork of BCH in 2018, the problems between the two are more reflected in the consensus.
In April 2018, the BCH community released a mid-term development roadmap, stating that it will upgrade and improve the technology of BCH, including expansion and Ethernet access of the BCH network. In terms of expansion, the block size is intended to be changed to 32MB, while another On the one hand, add or reactivate several Bitcoin script opcodes, so that the BCH network has the same intelligent contract application as Ethereum, thereby expanding more applications of BCH.
However, another leader in the community at that time, "Aoben Cong", had a different opinion. He believed that the current BCH only needs to expand the capacity and lock the protocol, and declared that he would "completely lock the underlying protocol of Bitcoin and expand the capacity to 128MB." . To this end, a project called Nchain was established, and a BSV node client was created on August 16, 2018, threatening to implement a fork called Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV) on the BCH protocol, with the goal of restoring Bitcoin original agreement.
After several rounds of fierce confrontation between the two camps, the contradictions reached the extreme again and they were unable to coordinate. On November 16, 2018, BCH officially hard forked into BCHABC and BCHSV. This fork led to a consensus split, and mainstream currencies plummeted.
But this time the fork is more about a conflict of interests.
The main contradiction is that Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of Leibit Mining Pool, put forward the "Bitcoin Cash Infrastructure Financing Plan", proposing to donate 12.5% of the block rewards in the main mining pool to a special establishment within a period of six months. The fund that supports the BCH infrastructure provides sufficient funds for protocol developers, but it touches the core interests of miners, and the proposal was soon opposed by members of the community.
Then, the BCH community split into two camps, the core development team BCHABC and BCHN, which also led to the fork on the evening of November 15.
Unlike the previous BCH and BSV computing power war, which was fiercely fought, the strength of the two parties in this bifurcation is extremely different. BCHN plays a leading role this time, so the impact on the market is not that great.
The main thing is, maybe BCH has been forking, which means that the consensus has been split, and the value has been split, giving investors the impression that the fork has become worthless.
At present, Jiang Zhuoer’s idea is that consensus is secondary, because digital currency is decentralized, so it is difficult to give priority to a certain opinion, but there will always be different opinions in a community, so according to the opinions of the community, we will continue to The fork is the real blockchain, and it is concluded that BTC will eventually be surpassed by ETH or even BCH.
But the most successful bitcoin can reach today's position, or reach a higher position in the future, only because it is a consensus, so many institutional investors and individual investors jointly endow bitcoin with the consensus of digital gold. He will continue to buy bitcoins and push up the price of bitcoins, so Jiang Zhuoer's philosophy is doubtful in the market. As for the value of BCH, let investors speak.
And today there was another small episode, probably based on Jiang Zhuoer’s dissatisfaction with BCH’s boasting, Wright Emperor Li Qiwei hinted that the market value of Litecoin will exceed BCH.
Then Litecoin began to rise sharply. As of the time of posting, Litecoin has risen by more than 8%. If BCH really wants to make itself look valuable and promising in the eyes of investors, it may be more intuitive to pull a few times Way.
Going back to the market, today’s Bitcoin looks more like it was driven by the rise of LTC, and there is not much meaning of spontaneous rise. Once such a rise occurs later, when LTC stops rising or falls, if BTC cannot take up the rise, it will pull back The probability is very high.
Only based on the current market, the probability of directly pushing up online is not high. You can observe the market in the past few weeks. When you are far away from the 5-day moving average, you will test it down and then rise again. This is what we think is a relatively healthy way. , Step back in the first half of the week, continue to pull in the second half of the week, and pull up directly this week when it is far away from the 5-day moving average, lacking sufficient support, and it is expected to fall back in the future.
Only based on the current market, the probability of directly pushing up online is not high. You can observe the market in the past few weeks. When you are far away from the 5-day moving average, you will test it down and then rise again. This is what we think is a relatively healthy way. , Step back in the first half of the week, continue to pull in the second half of the week, and pull up directly this week when it is far away from the 5-day moving average, lacking sufficient support, and it is expected to fall back in the future.
However, although LTC has risen as a whole, such an upward channel seems really uncomfortable. The volatility of the rise and pullback is too large. If it finally rises to $67 this time, the next pullback will pull back to $57, which will be a blow to the long-term Owner's confidence. Even if you are very optimistic about the long-term development of LTC, from the perspective of maximizing profits, it is still recommended to enter the market when it pulls back, and take profit first when it is near the upper track.
However, although LTC has risen as a whole, such an upward channel seems really uncomfortable. The volatility of the rise and pullback is too large. If it finally rises to $67 this time, the next pullback will pull back to $57, which will be a blow to the long-term Owner's confidence. Even if you are very optimistic about the long-term development of LTC, from the perspective of maximizing profits, it is still recommended to enter the market when it pulls back, and take profit first when it is near the upper track.
Recently, the bitcoin market is still in a trend of high volatility, and it is still mainly long, and it is necessary to look for the trend in order to make a profit. The recent few orders are also profitable. The multi-order order given yesterday happened to fall to the position and was received perfectly in the early morning of this morning, and I got a profit of 300 points. uni's spot stock has also made a lot of money recently, and it's over after everyone keeps up.
