Five Things to Watch About Bitcoin This Week: Stocks, Safe Havens and Hodlers
Shaky stocks and oil contrast with booming gold, offering potential upside for Bitcoin, but fundamentals still need to pick up.
Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into the third week of its new halving cycle and is just five figures away at $550, but, what exactly will that do to the price this week?
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1. Bitcoin, Stable vs. Stocks and Oil
Traditional markets got off to a rough start to the week. President Donald Trump's softer response from mainland China to Hong Kong amid protests in the U.S. worried already panicked stocks.
Due to this uncertainty, safe-haven assets are rebounding. Gold has gained around $50 since May 27 and is trading at $1,743 at press time, near its highest level since 2011.
Andreas Antonopoulos believes that oil in the U.S. is also falling, which could benefit local cryptocurrency miners.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has shown increased “decoupling” from macro movements in recent weeks, and the potential to follow gold remains.
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2. Double drop difficulty adjustment is introduced
All things being equal, Bitcoin still faces difficulty correcting downwards on a three-day time frame.
Auto-scaling is one of the most important features of the Bitcoin network, ensuring that miners maintain an incentive to participate in transaction validation.
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Bitcoin hash rate estimate 1-month chart. Source: blockchain.com
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3. Miners sell less
Last month’s halving cut miners’ BTC revenue by 50%, but outflows accelerated after the event. For a while, miners sold more BTC than they made.
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Bitcoin mining pool outflow 1-year chart, source: CryptoQuan
Declining willingness to sell BTC assets coincides with consumer activity-Hodlers have pulled more money from exchanges than at any point since the December 2018 lows.
Additionally, 60% of Bitcoin’s supply has now gone untouched for a year or more, despite wild price volatility. That has been the case for the past five months.
Whether exiting forex is a sign that investors are expecting a bull market is a topic of current debate in the analytical community.
What exactly are Hodlers?
"Hodlers", it's not a typo, it's a coinage, different from "Holders". "Hodlers" refers to: staunch holders of Bitcoin, who have religious enthusiasm and loyalty to Bitcoin, no matter how the market environment changes (price fluctuations, legal and political changes), they will firmly hold Bitcoin, and will never Sell, they firmly believe that Bitcoin will become the master of the currency world in the future.
Holders refer to general holders or investors, whose purpose of buying/holding Bitcoin is to obtain income from the price difference. When the price of Bitcoin reaches a certain height or expectation, or the price may drop sharply, they will choose to sell the digital currency they hold. When the price of Bitcoin plummets sharply, it is easy to distinguish "who are Hodlers and who are Holders". Generally, when the price plummets, "steady holders" will choose to continue buying, while "general Holders or investors" will choose to sell and leave.
And precisely because of the existence of Hodlers (firm holders), they "only buy but not sell". Therefore, as time goes by, the number of bitcoins they hold will only increase, not decrease, so they hold The proportion of Bitcoin will continue to increase, becoming a supply monopoly in Bitcoin circulation. However, the identity information of these "firm holders" is still unable to be tracked and known.
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4. No Futures Gap Can Push Prices Higher
Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange look set to open just a short distance away from Friday's close.
Fewer "gaps" in the market reduce the chance for Bitcoin to "fill" with a sudden upward or downward move.
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5. "Stock-to-flow", the exciting moment begins again
"Stock-to-flow" is a ratio model, and the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio model refers to the amount of available assets or reserve assets divided by the amount produced each year. The Stock-to-Flow ratio is an important metric because a higher metric value in S2F reflects a lower incidence of annual inflation for an asset. Gold is one of the assets with the highest Stock-to-Flow ratio, and its scarce value makes it the first choice of global investors.
According to the creator of the historically very accurate stock-to-flow price model, at the core price point of $9,500, Bitcoin is performing exactly as predicted.
As Cointelegraph reported, a key "red dot" was generated on the model on June 1st ("red dot" is like a red buy signal on the stock analysis system, which can be understood as the best time to invest in BTC point), which had previously signaled the start of a bull phase.
For the stock's flow, each bullish phase raises the price by an order of magnitude -- this time, a high of $576,000 or more is likely by 2024.
The relationship between "Stock-to-flow" and BTC:
The price prediction for August 2020 is also related to Bitcoin’s block reward halving in May 2020. The halving will reduce the number of bitcoins produced in a single block, which should drive up the price of the asset. According to the chart, it can be observed that the Bitcoin S2F index after halving is expected to be 55.92, which would make its intrinsic value very close to gold. Recently, the well-known analyst PlanB also predicted that Bitcoin may break through the market value of 1 trillion US dollars in 2028. This prediction is based on the Stock-to-Flow ratio model.
The relationship between "Stock-to-flow" and BTC is explained:
Disclaimer: This week's analysis of the important points of view of Bitcoin is purely a "new point of view of the block" analysis of market sensitivity, please reprint must declare "source-new point of view of the block (chengwf.com)", thank you!
Disclaimer: This week's analysis of the important points of view of Bitcoin is purely a "new point of view of the block" analysis of market sensitivity, please reprint must declare "source-new point of view of the block (chengwf.com)", thank you!
original:
original:Five Things to Watch About Bitcoin This Week - Stocks, Safe Havens and Hodlers (2020/6/1/23)
