Author | OK Research

· Standing above the $10,000 mark, the cumulative open position of Bitcoin contracts reached the highest level in history

· OKB has completely realized full circulation, and the price has skyrocketed

· The technical and emotional aspects are basically healthy, and a few indicators are overheated

After a slight consolidation at the beginning of February, Bitcoin has risen strongly again in the past seven days, with an increase of more than 12%. During the rise on Tuesday night, the BTC price index on the OKEX platform reached $10,381, the highest point since October 26 last year, which is also a new high since 2020. As for the proportion of Bitcoin’s market value, according to Tradingview data, this value has ushered in the eighth consecutive week of decline, from 70% at the beginning of the year to around 64%, which also makes the trend of many altcoins more optimistic. Since February 5, the trend of altcoins has shifted, and second-tier currencies such as XTZ and LINK have risen stronger than first-tier currencies such as ETH and BCH.

image description

Figure 1: Bitcoin long-term growth trend (Long-term growth trend) / Stock-to-Flow model forecast price / BTC actual price – Arcane Research

image description

secondary title

OKB has completely realized full circulation, and the price has skyrocketed

secondary title

Ethereum continues to be strong

The current price of Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, has risen above $240, the highest point since mid-July last year. In the article of OKEX Investment Research last week, we emphasized the recent strong trend of Ethereum. The ETH/BTC trading pair is up more than 10% in the past 7 days and more than 30% in the past 30 days. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has achieved incredible growth in 2019, and the total locked value of DeFi projects has recently passed the $1 billion mark, which also indicates that the strong trend may continue in 2020.

image description

news side

news side

1. When Bitcoin broke through the $10,000 mark, the Bitcoin Layer 2 technology "Lightning Network" also ushered in a new wave of capital and developers. Lightning Labs, best known for developing the first Lightning app in 2018, announced that they had raised $10 million in Series A funding. I believe that the Lightning Network will make great progress in 2020, but we are still waiting for phenomenal applications to appear.

2. In the past two years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cracked down on unregistered Token issuers selling in the US. Numerous blockchain projects have moved overseas while limiting access to U.S. customers, or shutting down entirely as a result. But last week, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce proposed a three-year grace period for blockchain projects building decentralized networks. If this proposal is implemented, it will be a very powerful impetus to the development of blockchain projects around the world.

technical side

technical side

image description

Emotional side

Emotional side

The sentiment picture remains relatively healthy overall, with several indicators a bit overheated. Among them, the OKEX quarterly contract premium rose to more than $400, which is also the highest level since the end of 2017. The funding rate of the perpetual contract has exceeded the daily average of 0.1% for many days, which also makes there are no shortage of arbitrageurs using the "spot + interest" strategy in the market to increase their short positions. USDT/USD has a positive premium in the US market, showing strong demand. In China, USDT’s over-the-counter transaction premium also continues to operate in the 1% to 2% area. The ratio of long-short positions in the OKEX transaction data is overheated. At present, the value has risen to more than 2.0, showing that the long position is too crowded.

image description

Figure 5: OKEX BTC long-short position ratio 2/5 -2/12 - OKEX