Market analysis: the black swan lingers away, and Bitcoin quickly falls back

特邀专栏作者

2020-01-09 10:54

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After the U.S. statement this morning, Iran-U.S. relations slowed down, and gold, oil, and bitcoin fell rapidly. At present, neither the United States nor Iran wants to go to a direct war, but there are still several problems that need to be faced. Short

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Abstract: After the U.S. statement this morning, Iran-U.S. relations slowed down, and gold, oil, and bitcoin fell rapidly. At present, neither the United States nor Iran wants to go to a direct war, but there are still several problems that need to be faced. Short-term market uncertainty is greater.

According to the statistics of QKL123, at 15:00 on January 09, 2020, the 8BTCCI market index reported 10534.27 points, and the 24-hour change was -4.49%, reflecting the rapid decline of the market; the total turnover was 598.367 billion yuan, and the 24-hour change was -10.63%. Activity has decreased. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported 108.94 points, with a 24-hour change of -1.01%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has weakened; the Alternative Sentiment Index was 44 (the previous value was 51), and the market sentiment was expressed as fear.

Analyst view:

In response to Iran's second retaliatory action yesterday, the President of the United States issued a statement in the early hours of this morning, pointing out that there were no US casualties in the previous Iranian attack, and the next step would be to respond through economic sanctions and restart of nuclear negotiations. What is dramatic is: Iran’s Fars News Agency reported yesterday that “at least 80 American soldiers were killed and 200 were injured in the Assad base”; To launch an attack, the United States will launch an attack on 52 targets in Iran." However, judging from the US statement, the attitude has obviously eased, and its strategy has changed somewhat.

According to reports, before yesterday's attack, the United States had learned of Iran's retaliatory actions, which also included advance warnings from Iraq, and prepared countermeasures in advance. According to other media reports, the Iraqi Prime Minister received Iran's "official verbal information" before the Iranian attack, which seems to indicate that the Iranian side deliberately kept room and did not want the uncontrollable casualties to trigger large-scale retaliation by the US.

Iran's "self-defense actions are over and does not want war", and the United States has also begun to claim that it will not retaliate militarily. Affected by this, gold, oil, and bitcoin all fell back significantly. Among them, CME gold futures fell back to the level on January 04 (around US$1,555), while Brent crude oil fell back to the level before the incident on January 03 (around US$66). Bitcoin fell back to the level on January 7, and the linkage with gold has been more obvious in recent days.

1. Spot BTC market