Bitcoin is turbulent, and the bears are large in later generations
Coin God profile: Graduated from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, a gold medal analyst, has been working in the capital market for seven years, focusing on the analysis of major digital currencies. With rich practical trading experience and unique trading philosophy, he is currently a special writer and commentary analyst for many financial websites. Real-time guide WeChat to follow the author's profile
In the past few days, the crypto market has been going smoothly, and it seems that the real players in the market have already started vacation mode.
For the international economy, this week is the most important week before 2020. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced the latest interest rate decision, kept interest rates unchanged, and stated in the post-meeting statement that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate to maintain continued economic expansion, strengthen the labor market, and target inflation close to 2%. Also remove the wording surrounding "uncertainty" in the foreground. The dot plot released after this meeting shows that by the end of 2020, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged. If interest rates can be kept unchanged in the medium term, this is the most favorable decision for the recovery of the global economy.
On U.S.-China trade, also on Thursday, Trump said the two sides were very close to a big deal. Today, my country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in response to trade consultations that (this) conforms to the fundamental interests of the two peoples and the interests of all parties. The high-level statements of both China and the United States further revived market sentiment.
Also on the 12th, the Conservative Party won the British general election with an absolute majority, which ensured that Prime Minister Johnson’s withdrawal agreement is expected to pass through the British Parliament, paving the way for the UK to leave the European Union at the end of January next year .
The Brexit and Sino-US trade frictions that have plagued the global economy since 2017 seem to be finally settled before 2020, and investors have more reasons to be optimistic about the future. In the case of Bitcoin, some may think that an optimistic macro environment will restrain the rise of Bitcoin price, but we believe that this relationship may be the opposite.
First of all, we believe that Bitcoin is a risky asset, highly speculative and volatile. Such assets perform better when the economy improves. Perhaps due to pressures such as current regulation or fund selling, the price of Bitcoin has been temporarily suppressed. But as long as the blockchain technology is still moving forward, there will be room for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies it represents. As more people and institutions accept it, their prices will rise, but the way of rising is more trendy. in reason.
On the micro level, the number of large transactions of Bitcoin this week did not continue the recovery pattern of the previous week, and fell back. In terms of the number of large-value transactions of more than 100 bitcoins, the number this week fell back to the low value during the September-November period. This shows that the current market trading sentiment is still very fragile. By the end of the year, investors' willingness to trade is very weak, and it is difficult for the market to rise sharply during this period.
Bitcoin’s short-term fundamentals are showing signs of deterioration. The Internet Finance Association today issued the “Risk Reminder on Preventing ICO and “Virtual Currency” Trading Activities in the Name of Blockchain”. Panic. From the perspective of the market, it has not been directly affected, which is also a reflection of the support at the nearby point. In a market with severe shrinkage, it is difficult to show the emotional operation of retail investors. It depends more on the main force's grasp and choice of direction. Our recent thinking is to look for opportunities for short-term upward breakthroughs at 7000-7500 points without breaking the position. The indicators show that the same is true. In the case of further spread of pessimism in the market, short-term operations are still cautiously bearish, and the market conditions dominated by the main force are very likely to be reversed.
bitcoinbitcoinWhen I fell below the 8,000 mark three times and did not rebound and stand firm, then I began to realize that the market was really about to change. After all, years of trading experience and market sensitivity still gave myself a warning. At that time, I reluctantly cut off the spot meat in my hand and ran away, and the contract position began to gradually increase the position. At that time, I told many currency friends who found me that if they had bitcoin, ether and other cash currencies in their hands, they should pay attention to reducing their holdings, sell them if there is profit, and run away early. Many friends did not believe that it would fall, especially at that time. Pola's rise to 9000 made many coin lovers laugh at me. To be honest, I regretted it a little at the time. But then the price dropped, and I was relieved. So that I said it when it fell to 7000, and said it when it fell to 6400. The contract can be shorted in the bear market. The spot rebound is an opportunity to run away. They have long since disappeared, some have gone bankrupt, some are still hanging on, some high-ranking people are reluctant to cut their flesh and now have to cut their flesh, and some are still ready to rush into the market... Life is full of things, it takes time to test.....
