7.2 Market Analysis: If the 10,000 mark is lost and regained, can the market continue?

Note: CSI100 is the "Shanghai Composite Index" in the CSI index series. The sample consists of the top 100 tokens in terms of size and liquidity, with a market capitalization coverage of 96%, reflecting the overall trend of the token market.

Note: CSI100 is the "Shanghai Composite Index" in the CSI index series. The sample consists of the top 100 tokens in terms of size and liquidity, with a market capitalization coverage of 96%, reflecting the overall trend of the token market.

Yesterday, Bond's opinion wasIf BTC can stop falling at 10500, it will build a double bottom and go for a wave of rebound. If it breaks, it will accelerate its decline to around 9600, and short-term positions need to be reduced to avoid risks.

The actual situation is the second trend. After BTC resisted a little around 10500, it was directly broken by a negative line to break the key support. Since the assumption of building a double bottom is not established, we can only adjust our strategy in time.

With the bears gradually gaining strength, market confidence was clearly suppressed. As shown in the figure above, according to the Fibonacci retracement formed from the high point of 20,000 to 3150, the position of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is around 9500, which happens to be the 30MA support, which is an important line of defense in the short term. If it breaks again, it may accelerate the decline.

Judging from the 1-hour line, BTC continues to run in the downward channel after failing to make a double bottom. It is currently rebounding with resistance at 10240, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and 10350, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If it cannot effectively break through the upper track of the descending channel, it may continue to fall after the rebound, and it can intervene around 9500 to fight for a rebound.

From the high point of 14000, the price corresponding to the 40% drop is 8400. Taking into account other possible "black swan" events or major negatives, the limit position of the retracement is estimated to be around 7500-8000. If BTC continues to retreat, you can make a plan to build positions in batches. After all, the opportunities in the medium and long term far outweigh the risks.