Blog Chain FinanceBlog Chain FinanceGuests:Bull and Bear Apocalypse》, aiming to "gracefully" get through the long bear in the currency circle through dialogues with the hearts of those who have crossed the bull and bear.

Guests:

Lou Jiyue, founder of TokenMania, famous blockchain investor

host:

host:

Blog Chain FinanceBlog Chain Finance】Content partner, founder of chain technology (id: chainology)

5 years of senior media experience, focusing on technology, venture capital, blockchain and other fields. He started to get in touch with Bitcoin in 2009 and entered the blockchain field in April 2017. He was a senior technology reporter at the South China station of "Interface News" and has been paying attention for a long time. And report on top TMT listed companies in South China such as Netease, Huanju Times, and Vipshop. The blockchain exclusive report "Renren Blockchain Project Rollover" was published by mainstream media such as NetEase, Tencent, Jiemian, and Jinse Finance, with over 10 million readings on the entire network.

Blog Chain Finance

Blog Chain Finance: This is the first bear market you have experienced since you entered the currency circle. Maybe this is also a special field for you-it allowed you to make a floating profit of 80 million in less than a year. You once said that this is enough (wealth freedom has been realized), there are bulls and bears in financial products, what do you think of this bear market?

Lou Jiyue: First of all, the economic environment is not good, the U.S. dollar has raised interest rates, the U.S. national debt has fallen, and the overall monetary policy is relatively stable; the second is that the cycle of digital currency as an asset class itself has basically reached the callback time; the third is the motivation of this bull market. ICO The market is basically cooling down, and at the same time it is facing regulatory risks in many countries; the fourth is the update and upgrade of the mining industry; the fifth is the breakthrough of blockchain technology and the practical application has not yet landed and other reasons, which lead to this bear market. The expected duration will be longer.

It is a good time to get rid of the bubble and return to the original intention. The current plan is to refine and deepen the traditional strengths, and practice the internal skills of asset management.

Bolian Finance: You have been very interested in investment and profitable business since you were a student. From university to studying abroad, it has always been related to finance. Do you think this experience will give you the opportunity to enter the blockchain and the next bear market? How does the cycle help?

Lou Jiyue: My family, school, internship and work experience all have a great impact on my financial cognition. The help for entering the blockchain may be to understand that I am relatively ordinary. I want to find a market with a larger alpha. Excess income, and then continue to work hard.

Bolian Finance: For some people in the traditional financial circle, when they first came into contact with Bitcoin, they would have doubts about this thing. You also came from the traditional financial industry (investment bank). What was your attitude at that time? Why?

Lou Jiyue: Up to now, many friends will take the picture of Satoshi Nakamoto's arrest and ask me whether it is true or not. When I came into contact with Bitcoin, I was doing bond underwriting, and I was known for my super high income. 2016 was a particularly good time for the bond market. At that time, all the recruits from schools in the department had passed five tests, and graduate students from the top four schools were not recruited. I was an employee with very ordinary qualifications in our original department. If I had been on a crowded track, I might not have had any great opportunities until now. I have always felt that people should not go to places where there are many people. It is the most difficult thing to get ahead in hot spots, and you must seek structural opportunities.

I have always thought about this matter in this way, and it may be an alternative personality that determines the fate of the wonderful.

Broadchain Finance: Do you still communicate with traditional financial practitioners? After experiencing a magnificent bull market and suffering a painful bear market, what are their views on digital currencies?

Lou Jiyue: We will definitely communicate. The traditional financial market is very large. Some people have begun to exert force on this market, and some people still have a hostile attitude, but their attitude is much more neutral than two years ago.

Bolian Finance: After you came in, the currency price started to rise, and your investment also made a lot of money. Do you think this is luck?

Lou Jiyue: This must be luck, I have never felt that I have any cognition that is too human. The only clever possibility is to buy eth after the Dao incident, the black swan theory, and everything else is luck.

Blog Chain Finance: Some media said before that your greatest interest is "making money". Can you share with us how you plan to "make money" in this bear market? What is your suggestion for retail investors in the secondary market?

Lou Jiyue: Because I shorted the market price a long time ago, I hedged some risks of price decline.

If you don’t lose money in a bear market, you can make money. I still do hedge funds and MOM, and now the returns are relatively stable; I will continue to do liquidity, and I have some partners;

For retail investors' suggestions, it is better to hold the currency and wait for the rise, and try not to touch leverage.

Bolian Finance: We know that in the bull market, everyone said that it was a sleepless night. At that time, you were still investing alone. Later, the trading volume became large, so you hired two people. Can you share with us your investment experience? What was the status and story at the time?

Lou Jiyue: The performance of market inefficiency is quite obvious. A lot of abnormal price fluctuations occur at night, and the liquidity of each exchange is not enough at that time, so I will divide the transaction of the same currency in several exchanges , there was no code and no split screen at that time, so several people needed to operate several computers independently.

Bolian Finance: Quantification (investment) is not so easy. Many so-called strategies are flawed. Why do digital currency quantification teams deify and even demonize quantitative investment?

Lou Jiyue: First of all, I would like to say that there is a difference between programmatic trading and quantitative trading. Most of the peers do programmatic trading, including my own team; hedging trading is a concept rather than a method; quantitative trading is more Most of them are some trading strategies based on data and historical statistics. Even if it is not executed by a computer, the transaction triggered by the quantity change based on the transaction factor can be called quantitative transaction.

Programmatic trading is a trading model in which strategies are executed by computers. For example, as I often say, arbitrage is actually programmatic trading. In quantitative transactions, many transactions are automatically executed by computers, but the two cannot be equated.

There are very few quantitative transactions in the currency circle, and the winning rate is not high, and the level is uneven. Unless we talk about very detailed parts, it will look professional and lose money.

Bolian Finance: Recently, we have also heard news that some quantitative teams have lost their positions or run away. What do you think is the biggest risk in quantification? How to guarantee the income of LP?

Lou Jiyue: There are too many risks. The biggest risk is that the team is not good enough... Character and ability are indispensable, and it is really difficult to have both. I have almost no LPs, mostly my own money, so I haven't had this problem yet.

The current so-called "quantitative trading risks" mainly include: 1. Exchange risk; 2. Black swan event risk (bch fork, etc.); 3. Risk control risk; 4. Transaction execution risk; 5. Risk of passive arbitrage accumulation.

Bolian Finance: In the traditional securities market, a 30% rise or fall is an important turning point between bulls and bears. Digital currencies such as Bitcoin fluctuate hugely, and a 100% rise or fall may be realized in a few days. How do you judge the digital currency field? The critical period for the conversion of bulls and bears?

Lou Jiyue: A lot of data, 1. The trend of the market this week; 2. The trading volume of the nine major exchanges; 3. The turnover rate of digital assets; 4. The wallet balance of the exchange; 5. The OTC premium rate; 6. Bitcoin fluctuations 7. Exchange monthly visits.

In addition, from a macro perspective, for example, the UK Taxation Office issued detailed taxation regulations on all types of cryptocurrencies (exchange tokens, use tokens, security tokens), summing up: this is a legal asset for citizens to invest , is also the legal income of citizens, and they have to pay capital gain and income tax. This is good in the long run and bad in the short term.

Another example is some mining events, such as the launch of 9nm mining machines, which is bound to be accompanied by the decline of the power of the older generation of miners. Then the price will definitely change dramatically.

Bolian Finance: "When I first had tens of millions, I was quite profligate. Boss Yi changed my concept in time, saying that if I continue like this, I won't be able to do great things, and I can't let my life limit be so low "This is a sentence you said in an interview, what has Boss Yi changed for you?

Lou Jiyue: This matter feels like it has been over-consumed, and everyone has seen it a lot. Boss Yi has given me all the foundations since I came to this market. No matter how it affects him, he is my bole. I hope to continue to work hard and not forget the original intention.

Blog Chain Finance: What is your current life goal? Are you still setting limits?

Lou Jiyue: This year's goal is to realize the current business and comprehensively improve the core engine; the current life goal may be to stick to oneself. I have encountered various strange events this year, so I am tempted to endure and gain what I can't. In a word: Admit ordinary, keep working hard.

Bolian Finance: This year, the blockchain industry has also experienced a lot. If you were asked to review and summarize yourself this year, how would you evaluate it?

Lou Jiyue: More than lucky, not enough hard work; good feelings, not seeking benefits. In short, still need to work hard.

Bolian Finance: There may be a long bear market in the future. There are still many people who leave the market. Of course, there will be people who have been in this field. In your opinion, under the current industry situation, how can we avoid missing the next market? The coming of the climax?

Lou Jiyue: Let’s do what you are good at as a professional. The first-mover advantage will soon disappear. You should put it in a parallel perspective and compare your competitiveness with traditional markets and overseas markets at the same latitude.

Bull and Bear ApocalypseBull and Bear Apocalypse, Slogan is "talking to the soul of the person who crosses the bull-bear". What do you think is the most important point of crossing the bull-bear?

Lou Jiyue: It should be the ability to create cash flow. Only by surviving to the next bull market can you stand on the stage.

Bull and Bear ApocalypseBull and Bear Apocalypse"Recommend three guests, who would you recommend?

Lou Jiyue: The three colleagues I admire most in China are CZ (Changpeng Zhao), Zhou Shuoji and Wu Jihan.

If you want to have a new understanding, I would recommend Ruan Yubo, the founder of 8D Capital, Aries Wang, the co-founder of bibox, and Wang Mingliang from tokenmania.

Netizens asked: Will 2019 be the first year of Dapp?

Lou Jiyue: For Dapp, 2018 is the first year. There are already a lot of spinach, and there are more on the way, but the application of Dapp and blockchain technology are two different things. If the public chain technology does not make a breakthrough, the application direction of Dapp will still be limited to the direction of block browser, quasi-finance, gambling and a generation of games.

Is it possible that the technology of the public chain will break through due to the development of the landing ecology?

Lou Jiyue: I think the order may be reversed.