CoinShares: Inflationary Pressure Still Limits Bitcoin's Upside Potential

Odaily reports: CoinShares analysis indicates that the continued weakening of the U.S. housing market has provided room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but inflationary pressure remains a key constraint on monetary policy.

On the interest rate front, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, but recent hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data leave the risk of further rate hikes in place. Polymarket data shows that as of October 20, the market priced in roughly a 12% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October, while CME market pricing suggested about 17%; the market's expected probability of another rate hike in December is about 83%. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates in October, it could trigger a larger shock by exceeding market expectations.

Bitcoin showed relative resilience this week amid volatility in risk assets, supported by recovering spot demand, improved stock market sentiment, and short covering. However, the subsequent trajectory of the crypto market will still be mainly influenced by interest rate expectations and changes in liquidity, and the policy buffer provided by housing market weakness is not yet sufficient to offset inflation risks.