ARK Invest Releases Updated Tesla Valuation: Market Cap Could Reach $17.5 Trillion by 2031, with a Price Target of $4,400 per Share

Odaily: ARK Invest has released an update to its open-source Tesla valuation model, projecting that Tesla will be worth approximately $4,400 per share by 2031. A Monte Carlo simulation based on 32 independent variables shows a bear case of around $3,300 per share and a bull case of around $5,000 per share, corresponding to annualized share price gains of 53% and 66%, respectively, with the base case implying an annualized return of approximately 62%.

Under the base case, ARK Invest expects Tesla's total revenue to reach approximately $1.45 trillion by 2031, with EBITDA of about $902 billion and a market capitalization of approximately $17.5 trillion.

To support the development of its AI and robotics businesses, the model also assumes that Tesla's cumulative AI infrastructure spending will increase from approximately $7 billion at the end of 2025 to approximately $225 billion by the end of 2031. Robotaxi is expected to become Tesla's primary source of value, contributing approximately 80% of enterprise value by 2031. The humanoid robot Optimus will also become an important growth engine, with Tesla's cumulative external sales of Optimus robots reaching approximately 1 million units by 2031, and revenue from robotics-as-a-service (RaaS) and related businesses amounting to approximately $212 billion.

However, ARK Invest cautions that these valuations depend on multiple assumptions, including the pace of autonomous driving commercialization, the maturity of robotics technology, profit margins, and capital efficiency. Actual results may differ significantly from these projections. The model is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.