BIS Working Paper: Rising Bank Deposit Rates Slow Stablecoin Growth

Odaily: A working paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), based on weekly U.S. data from January 2019 to June 2025, found that when bank deposit rates rise, the growth rate of the stablecoin market slows. The paper's authors include BIS economist Iñaki Aldasoro and Rashad Ahmed of the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics.

In the sample, stablecoin market capitalization grew by about 15% over a typical 10-week period. Baseline estimates show that after a one-basis-point increase in deposit rates, that growth rate falls to about 12%; an alternative method used to identify causality shows the growth rate falling to about 6%, though the stablecoin market still continued to grow.

The correlation is stronger for Circle-issued USDC than for Tether-issued USDT, which the authors attribute to USDC's closer ties to U.S. users. The paper notes that banks can influence the pace of stablecoin adoption through deposit pricing, and recommends that regulators assess whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pay yield to holders and whether issuers should be required to hold a portion of their reserves in bank deposits.

The working paper represents only the views of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the BIS; the sample covers a single high-interest-rate cycle, during which stablecoins paid no interest to holders. The U.S. Treasury, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) are drafting implementation rules for the GENIUS Act, which takes effect next January and sets out rules for the issuance, use, and custody of stablecoins. (Decrypt)