Strategy's risk of being removed from MSCI may already be priced in, and net mNAV falling below 1 could become an investment opportunity

Odaily reports: Crypto KOL CM posted that the market may have already priced in the potential impact of Strategy (MSTR) being removed from MSCI-related indices, and even if passive fund selling follows, MSTR's stock price may not necessarily fall significantly further. MSTR closed down 9.56% yesterday.

CM pointed out that ordinary mNAV mainly measures the ratio of a company's market capitalization to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, while net mNAV further takes into account factors such as preferred stock and debt, better reflecting the valuation level of the company's stock relative to its net Bitcoin assets. Historically, net mNAV falling below 1 has been rare, and usually signals market concern about the company's operating conditions or valuation logic.

CM believes that Strategy's current cash reserves are theoretically sufficient to cover dividend expenses for roughly the next three years, and Bitcoin's price remains above the company's average holding cost of about $75,000, so the probability of net mNAV falling below 1 again is relatively low. If it does fall below this level later, it could instead become an investment opportunity.