Macro Risks Suppress Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment, Probability of Reaching $100K by Christmas Falls Below 10%

Odaily reports that the crypto market is caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: on one hand, digital asset analysts remain bullish; on the other hand, the speculative market as a whole is turning defensive, with risk appetite under continued pressure. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month. Dragged down by the sell-off in the U.S. stock market's AI sector, risk assets broadly retreated, and the bullish sentiment the crypto market had previously attempted to rebuild was once again undermined.

Jeff Anderson, head of STS Digital's U.S. division, said inflation data will "deal a severe blow to risk appetite," while the market is entering a quiet period ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with rate expectations still shrouded in uncertainty. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, said that over the past 24 hours, the market-implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Christmas dropped 2.8 percentage points to 9.7%. He noted that the rapid retreat of long-term bullish bets and the surge in short-term hedging demand indicate that institutional participants are rapidly reassessing macro risk exposure as the interest rate outlook once again becomes murky. (Bloomberg)