US Pressure on Iran Shifts Toward Long-Term Attrition as Oil Blockade Fails to Fully Cut Off Revenue

Odaily News: The Trump administration is reassessing the timeline for economic pressure on Iran. As sanctions and port blockades have failed to force Tehran to accept negotiation terms, Washington is gradually accepting that the campaign may last for months or even longer, with the "economic exile" of Iran shifting from a short-term strategy to long-term attrition.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent had previously predicted that Iranian airlines would be forced to halt international operations by the end of September, but that target was not met. Although the blockade has significantly compressed Iran's new oil exports, Iran is still selling previously shipped inventory. Reuters data shows that approximately 20 million barrels of Iranian crude remain outside the blockaded area; Kpler data shows that Iran can still transport about 250,000 barrels of oil per day across land borders.

In the next phase, the US will continue targeting Iranian banks, airlines, oil transport vessels, and intermediary networks, and will pressure foreign financial institutions, warning them that transactions with Iran may face secondary sanctions, while also restricting Iran's use of shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers, and third-country trade to evade sanctions.

However, economic pressure has yet to translate into Iranian concessions on core issues such as its nuclear program. Tehran still demands that the US lift the port blockade, ease oil sanctions, and release frozen assets. The US assesses that by continuously squeezing Iran's oil revenue and international financial channels, time will gradually shift in America's favor, but a prolonged blockade also means higher military commitments, shipping risks, and energy market costs. (The Washington Post)