QCP Latest Analysis: Key BTC Level at $87,200, ETH Needs to Hold $2,725 Threshold, FOMC Meeting to Be the Main Market Catalyst

Odaily News: QCP stated in its official channel that the macro narrative has completely reversed within three weeks: from "October rate hike" to "October rate hike expectations being fully ruled out, with the Fed expected to hold steady." September nonfarm payrolls plunged to just 29,000, far below the expected 84,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year, the lowest level since May 2021. The three-month average of nonfarm payrolls fell to 50,700, roughly one-third of last year's pace. This dovish employment data supports the Fed pausing rate hikes in October, but the 10-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly at 5.25% as supply and term premium factors overshadow growth signals. The probability of an October rate hike has dropped to 22%.

Bitcoin pulled back to $86,700 after hitting resistance at $87,100 on Friday, indicating that dip-buying demand persists. Weekend liquidations were modest at $62.7 million, with short positions accounting for 68%. A decisive hold above $87,200 is needed to confirm the next leg of the rally. Ethereum held the $2,725 threshold within the $2,650-$2,800 range, with the current setup remaining cautiously optimistic.

Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes will be the main catalyst — the market will interpret whether hawkish dissents stem from firm conviction or compromise. TOKEN2049 in Singapore from Thursday to Friday could trigger volatility. Attention should be paid to the CPI data on October 14, which will be the first test of whether the disinflation trend can continue.