Polymarket odds for "the next Claude Opus model will be released on September 22" rose to 77%, up 50% in 24 hours

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket odds for "the next Claude Opus model will be released on September 22" rose to 77%, up 50% in 24 hours.

Only a new model explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic counts, such as Claude Opus 5.1, Opus 5.5, Opus 6, etc. Other names such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, and Mythos do not count, unless Anthropic officially names it Opus.

The release date is based on the calendar date in U.S. Eastern Time.

It must actually be made available to the public to trigger settlement. Public betas and open rolling waitlists both count; closed betas, invite-only access, or private access do not count.

If the model name, a placeholder, or a mislabel merely appears on Anthropic's official website but the model is not actually usable by the public, it does not count as a release.

Settlement will primarily be based on Anthropic's official information, verified in combination with credible media reports.

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