Polymarket's probability of "the Fed will raise rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in 2026" has risen to 66%, up 21% in 24 hours

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "the Fed will raise rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in 2026" has risen to 66%, up 21% in 24 hours; the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point hike has risen to 15%, up 7% in 24 hours.

According to the settlement rules, this market settles based on the number of 25 basis point units of actual Fed rate hikes in 2026, with a single 50 basis point hike counted as 2 hikes, and emergency rate hikes also counted. A single hike of 1 to 24 basis points is also counted as 1 hike. This market settles based on statements released after the conclusion of FOMC meetings held according to the Fed's official 2026 schedule.

The Fed concluded its monetary policy meeting on September 16 and announced a 25 basis point rate hike, marking the Fed's first rate hike since July 2023.

Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.