Analyst: BTC Market Structure Improves, but Rally Not Yet Fully Spot-Driven
Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that Bitcoin's market structure remains constructive, but the subsequent trajectory still depends on whether genuine spot demand can effectively absorb market supply.
On-chain data shows ETF holdings continuing to rise, with institutional investors still absorbing BTC and large investors forming buy-side support at current levels. However, Binance BTC reserves remain at approximately 685,000–687,000 BTC, while the 7-day average net exchange inflow has risen to about 593 BTC, indicating lingering selling pressure. Stablecoin inflows are increasing, with market purchasing power rising in tandem.
On the derivatives front, the funding rate has turned negative, and open interest fell from approximately $27.5 billion to $25.7 billion between September 4 and 5. However, Binance BTC open interest has recently climbed above $10 billion, a six-month high, suggesting that the current rally is not yet fully spot-driven. The short-term holder SOPR has recovered to above 1, improving sentiment while also expanding room for profit-taking. Some long-dormant BTC (including addresses linked to 2010-era miners) have recently shown signs of activity.
The analyst noted that the key at this point is whether spot demand can absorb supply and push BTC to effectively break through the $82,000–$83,000 resistance range.
