Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns have narrowed, while gains from cycle lows have simultaneously declined

Odaily News: Over the past 18 years, the Bitcoin market has repeatedly seen the narrative of "this time is different," yet the structure of each cycle has largely continued. In 2014, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2024-2025, BTC’s maximum drawdowns were approximately 85%, 84%, 77%, and 53%, respectively, showing a gradual narrowing trend.

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, released a chart stating that the current BTC drawdown is significantly smaller than those of previous cycles. Analyst Willy Woo noted that as the supply shock from halvings diminishes, Bitcoin may be transitioning from a four-year cycle to a six-to-eight-year cycle, although this assessment cannot yet be confirmed.

In previous cycles, gains from the low point to the next all-time high were approximately 580x, 130x, 22x, and 8x, respectively. Analyst James Check pointed out that Bitcoin’s price floor has risen each cycle, while its peak has remained relatively stable. Jesse Myers stated that BTC may have just entered a two-to-three-year bull market. (Bitcoin.com News)