Analysis: Yen Strength Boosts Bitcoin, but Carry Trade Risks Are Rising

According to Odaily, the yen has continued to strengthen recently, pushing the U.S. dollar index (DXY) lower and providing short-term support for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Data shows that the U.S. dollar against the yen (USD/JPY) fell 1.4% intraday to 156.40, after already declining 0.9% on Wednesday; the euro, pound, and Australian dollar all edged higher against the dollar. As a result, the DXY fell 0.4% to 99.22, approaching its 200-day moving average.

Analysts believe this trend typically favors dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, while also helping to ease global financial conditions and boost market risk appetite. However, if the yen appreciates too rapidly, this logic could quickly reverse.

Over the past decade-plus, many investors have used low-cost yen financing to invest in stocks, bonds, and even cryptocurrencies. If the yen appreciates sharply, yen carry trades could unwind, triggering a sell-off in risk assets. When yen carry trades were unwound in August 2024, Bitcoin fell roughly 20% within days.

Market expectations are currently growing that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% on September 18, and the yen continues to face further appreciation pressure. Reports also indicate that officials from the U.S. and Japan have previously taken action to address "disorderly yen movements." Therefore, while a moderate yen appreciation is currently favorable for Bitcoin, if it evolves into a rapid, disorderly appreciation, it could instead become a risk factor for BTC. (CoinDesk)