Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September fall to 49%, down 10% in 24 hours

Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September have fallen to 49%, down 10% in 24 hours.

Earlier released U.S. ADP employment data for August came in below expectations, with only 38,000 jobs added, marking the smallest increase since January.

Market attention has now shifted to the August non-farm payrolls report due out on September 4, which will be the final full employment report before the Fed's September 15-16 policy meeting. Market analysts suggest that strong data could further boost rate hike bets, while overly weak data could trigger recession trading. Only an "orderly cooling" between the two extremes might provide a relatively favorable mix for risk assets.

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