Polymarket: Probability of "GPT-6 Released Before September 15" Rises to 88%, Up 45% in 24 Hours

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability of "GPT-6 released before September 15" on Polymarket has risen to 88%, up 45% in 24 hours; the probability of release before September 30 has risen to 90%, up 34% in 24 hours.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases GPT-6 to the public before the specified time in 2026, and "No" otherwise.

GPT-6 must be officially made available to the public, including public beta or an open waitlist. Closed testing or private access does not qualify.

Qualifying products must be explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g., ChatGPT-6o), or be widely recognized as the next-generation model following GPT-5. Products such as GPT-5.5, which still belong to the GPT-5 series, do not qualify.

Resolution will primarily rely on official information from OpenAI, with reference to credible media reports.

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