CLARITY Act has a 15% probability of passing in 2026, with the earliest Senate procedural vote expected on September 15

Odaily News According to data from prediction market platform Polymarket, the CLARITY Act has a 15% probability of completing legislation and receiving the President's signature by 2026, with related contract trading volume reaching approximately $11.62 million. Kalshi data shows that the probability of this bill or other qualifying crypto market structure bills becoming law before July 1, 2027, is 30%, and 50% before January 1, 2028.

In remarks during a hearing on September 2, House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill highlighted the House's passage of the CLARITY Act as a committee achievement, stating that Republican committee members are pushing to codify related reforms into law to make financial rules durable and predictable over the long term.

According to the U.S. Senate schedule, the motion to invoke cloture on H.R. 3633 could move to a vote as early as September 15 at 2:15 p.m., typically requiring 60 votes. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14 with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. The subsequent amended text addresses the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), consumer protections, illicit finance, DeFi, intermediary oversight, and disclosure requirements. (Bitcoin.com News)