Polymarket Lists New Market: "When Will the US and Iran Achieve a Two-Week Ceasefire"

Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire?" Currently, the probability for September 4 stands at 24%; for September 11, 46%; for September 18, 64%; and for September 30, 73%.

According to market rules, if a continuous 14-day period begins before the specified deadline during which the US has not taken qualifying military action against Iran, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The 14-day period is calculated starting from the day after the most recent qualifying military action; if no such action occurs after the market is created, the countdown begins from the day the market was established.

"Qualifying military action" refers to airstrikes or ground-to-ground missile strikes initiated by the US and directly targeting Iranian territory. The military action must directly hit Iran's land territory, including its internal waters, to be considered a strike against Iran. Maritime territory and airspace are excluded. Resolution of this market will be based on official information released by the US and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as reports from credible media outlets.

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