September "curse" looms, US stocks quietly bracing for a shift

Odaily News On August, US stocks barely managed to hold their upward momentum amidst volatility, but analysts warn that with the S&P 500 stalling at highs, the rebound in Treasury yields and valuation divergence in Nvidia have pushed the market to a critical tipping point. Despite shrinking trading volumes and narrowing index ranges, US stocks still managed to sustain their upward trend in August. After breaking through an all-time high of 7,800 points two weeks ago, the S&P 500 currently remains within 2% of its peak.

However, investors should not be fooled by this superficial "calm." Historical experience shows that September is often the worst month for US stocks, and in 2026—an election year with a strong prior market performance—seasonal factors could shift.

Veteran market commentator Michael Santoli stated that what truly warrants caution is that multiple key market indicators are in a "taut" state, and once thresholds are breached, the market's characterization could undergo a dramatic change. At the individual stock level, Nvidia (NVDA.O) is facing an awkward valuation logic trap. While analysts are generally bullish on its prospects, with consensus target prices implying a potential market cap of $7.5 trillion, the market is currently refusing to pay a premium for its high growth.