美联储研究：加密投资者更受信念驱动，比特币上涨信息可刺激更多买入

Odaily News A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland shows that cryptocurrency investors differ significantly from traditional asset investors, with widely divergent views on the future returns and risks of digital assets. Information about Bitcoin's historical price gains may further drive investors to increase their allocation intentions and actually purchase crypto assets.

The research paper, titled "Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance," is based on multiple rounds of U.S. household survey data, with each round covering up to approximately 25,000 households. Researchers found that, compared with demographic characteristics such as age, income, and gender, investors' expectations of future cryptocurrency returns better explain who chooses to hold crypto assets.

The study shows that cryptocurrency holders expect an average return of about 22% over the next year, significantly higher than the approximately 7% expected by non-holders. At the same time, holders tend to perceive crypto assets as less risky than non-holders do.

Researchers found that for every 1 percentage point increase in an individual's expected return on cryptocurrency, the probability of holding crypto assets rises by about 0.8 percentage points. Return expectations and risk perceptions explain cryptocurrency holding behavior even better than traditional factors such as age, income, and wealth.

This characteristic contrasts with traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and gold. For traditional investment products, investors' economic backgrounds typically better explain differences in asset allocation, whereas the crypto market relies more on investors' subjective judgments about future price performance.

Additionally, through a randomized information experiment, the research team found that simply providing investors with information about Bitcoin's price gains over the past 12 months significantly increased their willingness to allocate to crypto assets. Data show that respondents who saw Bitcoin's historical performance information increased their planned crypto allocation rate by about 2 percentage points, a rise of approximately 47% relative to the control group's 4.3% allocation intention. The probability of actually purchasing crypto assets also increased by about 2.5 percentage points.

The study suggests that this mechanism may explain the cyclical boom-and-bust phenomenon in the crypto market: rising prices attract more investors, new capital further pushes prices higher, thereby creating a cycle of "price increases—strengthened optimistic expectations—more buying." (Cointelegraph)